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Today, the AUD/USD pair is attracting some buyers amid modest weakness in the US dollar. However, spot prices remain near the more than one-year low reached last Friday.
Key Factors Influencing AUD/USD
- Support from Weaker USD:The US dollar starts the week on a softer note, reflecting a modest decline in US Treasury bond yields. This remains the primary factor offering some support to the AUD/USD pair.
- Headwinds for AUD:A dovish bias from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), coupled with ongoing economic challenges in China, acts as a headwind for the Australian dollar. Additionally, expectations of a less dovish stance from the Federal Reserve support dollar bulls, suggesting that the path of least resistance for spot prices continues to be downward.
- Market Sentiment on the Fed:Investors appear convinced that the US Federal Reserve may slow the pace of its rate-cutting cycle due to stalled progress in reducing inflation to the 2% target. This conviction has driven the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds to a three-week high, underpinning the positive outlook for the US dollar.
- Geopolitical and Trade Risks:Geopolitical risks and concerns over a potential trade war between the US and China also favor the US dollar as the safest and most reliable currency. These factors call for caution before opening new long positions in the AUD/USD pair.
FOMC Meeting as a Crucial Catalyst
Traders should refrain from aggressive positioning ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting results scheduled for Wednesday. While the Fed is widely expected to lower borrowing costs by 25 basis points, it may adopt a more cautious stance regarding further rate cuts.Focus will be on the accompanying monetary policy statement and Fed Chair Jerome Powell's remarks during the post-meeting press conference, which are expected to influence demand for the US dollar and provide fresh momentum for the AUD/USD pair.
Technical Outlook
- Bearish Momentum Persists:Daily chart oscillators remain firmly in negative territory and are far from oversold levels, suggesting that the path of least resistance for the AUD/USD pair remains downward.Further declines could bring the pair closer to recent lows, with any recovery likely facing resistance from persistent bearish sentiment.
Traders are advised to closely monitor upcoming Fed communications for directional cues in the pair.
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