04.02.202512:09 Forex Analysis & Reviews: USD/CAD. Analysis and Forecast

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The USD/CAD pair is regaining positive momentum, partially reversing the sharp drop from the previous day.Today, USD/CAD is attracting some buying interest during the pullback from the 1.4385 area, halting the sharp decline from the highest level since March 2020. The recovery is supported by a combination of factors, pushing spot prices closer to the psychological 1.4500 level.

Crude oil prices are falling for the second consecutive day, hitting a more-than-one-month low, undermining the commodity-linked Canadian dollar. This provides a tailwind for the USD/CAD pair amidst rising demand for the U.S. dollar.

U.S. President Donald Trump's decision to postpone the recently imposed tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico has eased concerns over potential supply disruptions from these two major oil suppliers to the U.S.

Additionally, the outlook for reduced fuel demand, particularly due to the expected ripple effects of Trump's trade policies, is exerting further pressure on oil prices. Expectations that Trump's policies could push inflation higher and reduce the need for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates have also contributed to a modest rebound in the U.S. Treasury yields. This, in turn, offers additional support to the USD/CAD pair. Moreover, the dovish outlook from the Bank of Canada suggests that the path of least resistance for the USD/CAD pair remains upward.

From a technical perspective, oscillators on the daily chart remain in positive territory, indicating that the pair is not yet ready for a significant decline. This setup suggests the potential for further gains in the near term, with the psychological 1.4500 level acting as the next target for bulls.

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