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On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair continued its upward movement on Wednesday and reached the resistance zone of 1.2488–1.2508 on Thursday. A rejection from this area would favor the U.S. dollar, potentially leading to a renewed decline toward the support zone of 1.2363–1.2370. However, a break and consolidation above 1.2488–1.2508 would increase the likelihood of further gains toward the Fibonacci 200.0% level at 1.2569.
The wave structure remains clear. The last completed downward wave failed to break below the previous low, while the most recent upward wave successfully surpassed its previous peak. This suggests that the formation of a bullish trend is still ongoing.
However, recent waves vary significantly in size, offering multiple possible interpretations. There is no strong confidence that the bullish trend will continue for the next couple of weeks.
On Wednesday, the fundamental backdrop was in favor of bearish traders, yet they failed to seize control. On Thursday morning, the UK released several economic reports, bringing a boost to the pound. UK GDP for Q4 grew by 0.1%—although this is not a strong economic expansion, markets expected a contraction of -0.1% quarter-over-quarter. Industrial production increased by 0.5% month-over-month, exceeding traders' expectations.
These two key reports provided rare support for bullish traders, maintaining the bullish trend, although it still appears fragile.
On the 4-hour chart, GBP/USD has been trading in a sideways range for several weeks, reinforcing the uncertainty surrounding its long-term growth prospects against the U.S. dollar. Even with strong UK data, the fundamental weakness of the British economy limits the potential for a sustained rally.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair remains in a horizontal range between 1.2299 and 1.2565. The hourly chart offers a clearer picture, as the 4-hour timeframe increasingly signals a sideways trend. No major divergences are currently forming on any indicators.
Over the last reporting week, the sentiment among non-commercial traders became less bearish. Long positions increased by 6,111 and short positions decreased by 4,238.
Despite this shift, bullish traders have lost their previous dominance, a process that has been ongoing for several months. The gap between long and short positions remains in favor of bearish traders: 65,000 long contracts vs. 76,000 short contracts.
In my view, the British pound still faces downside risks, as COT data continues to indicate a strengthening bearish sentiment week after week.
Over the past three months, long positions have declined from 120,000 to 65,000. Meanwhile, short positions have increased from 75,000 to 76,000.
I expect professional traders to further reduce their long positions or increase their short exposure, as most bullish factors for the pound have already been priced in.
While the technical picture suggests potential upside, corrections are inevitable.
Economic Calendar for the UK & U.S.
Thursday's economic calendar includes four key releases—two of which have already provided support to bullish traders. However, the overall impact of the remaining reports on market sentiment for the rest of the day may be limited.
GBP/USD Forecast & Trading Recommendations
Selling opportunities are possible on a rejection from the 1.2488–1.2508 zone, targeting 1.2363–1.2370 on the hourly chart. Buying opportunities were previously valid above the 1.2363–1.2370 range, with targets at 1.2488–1.2508. This target has been met, so I would not consider new long positions at this time.
Fibonacci Levels
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