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The EUR/USD currency pair continued its upward trend on Friday, with the euro gaining strength throughout the week, often without clear justification. Although some reports supported the euro—such as the Eurozone's better-than-expected GDP report and the weaker-than-expected U.S. retail sales data—it is important to recognize that the broader macroeconomic environment still favored the dollar. Specifically, the U.S. inflation report indicated a fourth consecutive increase in consumer prices, and Jerome Powell's recent testimonies in Congress confirmed that any rate cuts in 2025 would be very gradual. If inflation continues to rise, the Federal Reserve may even abandon its plans for easing altogether.
This context should have led to an increase in the U.S. dollar's value; however, the market overlooked this information and instead reacted positively to reports that benefited the euro. This development aligns with our expectations, as we have consistently pointed out that the key factor currently is the ongoing upward correction on the daily timeframe, which has not yet reached its conclusion.
On Friday, exactly one buy signal was formed in the 5-minute timeframe. Early in the European trading session, the price rebounded from the 1.0451 level, after which it continued to rise throughout the day. The euro failed to reach the nearest target level but moved 30–40 pips upward. Novice traders could have easily capitalized on this movement by closing buy trades almost anywhere and anytime.
On the hourly timeframe, the EUR/USD pair is currently in a medium-term downtrend. Although a local uptrend was briefly interrupted, it has since resumed. We still anticipate that the euro will decline, as the fundamental and macroeconomic conditions continue to favor the U.S. dollar significantly over the euro. However, the upward correction on the daily timeframe could persist for several more weeks.
On Monday, market movements may become erratic and illogical once again. While the market is leaning towards further upward movement due to the need for a correction on the daily timeframe, there is also a possibility of pullbacks and downward retracements.
On the 5-minute timeframe, key levels to monitor are 1.0156, 1.0221, 1.0269-1.0277, 1.0334-1.0359, 1.0433-1.0451, 1.0526, 1.0596, 1.0678, 1.0726-1.0733, 1.0797-1.0804, 1.0845-1.0851. There are no scheduled significant or even secondary economic events in either the Eurozone or the U.S. on Monday. Most likely, we are in for yet another "quiet Monday."
Support and Resistance Levels: These are target levels for opening or closing positions and can also serve as points for placing Take Profit orders.
Red Lines: Channels or trendlines indicating the current trend and the preferred direction for trading.
MACD Indicator (14,22,3): A histogram and signal line used as a supplementary source of trading signals.
Important Events and Reports: Found in the economic calendar, these can heavily influence price movements. Exercise caution or exit the market during their release to avoid sharp reversals.
Forex trading beginners should remember that not every trade will be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing proper money management are essential for long-term trading success.
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