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Over the past two sessions, the euro has been consolidating above the 1.0458 level, indicating signs of divergence with the Marlin oscillator. This pattern highlights two key market characteristics: the price is struggling to maintain its upward momentum and lacks the strength to reach the target range of 1.0534 to 1.0575. Consequently, the market is accumulating energy, with the price likely settling into a broader range for an extended period of preparation, potentially until the European Central Bank meeting on March 6.
The lower boundary of this range is defined by the MACD line at 1.0290. Additionally, it is crucial to monitor sentiment in the stock market to determine whether the rally will continue toward new highs or reverse. For now, the primary scenario suggests further growth toward the 1.0534 to 1.0575 range to complete the divergence formation.
On the four-hour chart, the price has not yet indicated readiness for a deeper downward breakout. A confirmation of this move would require the price to consolidate below the 1.0458 level, which would also push the Marlin oscillator into negative territory. This scenario would open up a downside target at 1.0393 along the MACD line, followed by a potential decline toward the 1.0350 target level.
The euro may also find support from today's economic sentiment data from the Eurozone. The ZEW survey forecast for February is 24.3, compared to 18.0 in January.
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