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The pound continues to hold confidence and market support. Unlike the euro, demand for the British currency is rising more steadily, and the corrective wave C in 2 has already taken a convincing shape. However, given that both currencies often move in a similar dynamic, I do not expect a decline in the pound unless the euro starts to weaken first.
The fundamental backdrop in the UK has been strong over the past two weeks, but now the momentum may slow down. The economic calendar for the upcoming week is empty, meaning there will be no significant UK reports apart from a few speeches from Bank of England members. As a result, GBP/USD will be influenced primarily by U.S. data, which itself is not particularly eventful, and general market sentiment.
In recent weeks, demand for the pound has increased not only due to solid UK reports but also without strong fundamental justification at times. However, this behavior can be explained. The latest UK inflation report not only confirmed rising inflation but also significantly reduced the likelihood of four rate cuts by the BoE this year. The euro lacks such support from the ECB, which explains why the pound has shown stronger resilience compared to the euro.
Based on wave analysis, EUR/USD continues to form a downward trend segment. The first wave of this segment appears strong and complete, suggesting that we should expect a three-wave or more complex corrective structure, where new selling opportunities can be sought at the highest points.
I anticipate a convincing wave C within wave 2, but this wave may take a shortened form. An alternative scenario would be a five-wave structure within wave 2.
The wave structure of GBP/USD suggests that the downtrend is still developing, with its first wave already completed. The next step is to wait for a clear corrective pattern before looking for new short-selling opportunities.
The minimum correction targets are around 1.26 (already reached), while a more optimistic outlook suggests a move toward 1.28. Even at current levels, selling opportunities can be considered since wave C is nearing completion. However, it would be more prudent to wait for confirmation signals, which traders may interpret differently.
Key Principles of My Analysis
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