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For the second consecutive day, USD/CAD continues its downward movement. The U.S. dollar remains under pressure due to growing concerns about an economic slowdown, fueled by the impact of new tariffs imposed by Donald Trump. On Tuesday, Trump's 25% tariffs on Canadian and Mexican goods officially took effect, along with an increase in tariffs on Chinese imports to 20%, adding further uncertainty to the market.
According to U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, in an interview with Fox News, Trump may reconsider his tariff policy within 48 hours of its implementation, which could provide some relief, provided that USMCA conditions are met. However, the New York Times reports that Trump has privately expressed his intention to keep the tariffs in place, creating additional risks for the market.
The U.S. Dollar Index, which measures the dollar's value against a basket of six major currencies, has been declining for the third consecutive day. Market sentiment continues to weigh on the greenback amid speculation that Trump may ease his stance on tariffs.
Key Economic Data to Watch Today
Investors should pay close attention to the ISM Services PMI and the ADP Employment Report, both scheduled for release during the North American trading session.
The Canadian dollar also faces downside risks, which limits further losses in USD/CAD. Expectations for additional rate cuts by the Bank of Canada (BoC) are increasing. According to Reuters, markets have already priced in an 80% probability of a rate cut by the BoC next week.
BMO Chief Economist Douglas Porter noted that the expected quarter-point rate reduction is likely to continue for the next four meetings until July, bringing the key rate down to 2.0%.
Market Outlook and Technical Factors
Additionally, as the Canadian dollar is closely tied to oil prices, the recent decline in crude oil also acts as a limiting factor for further USD/CAD downside movement.
From a technical perspective, despite the U.S. dollar's decline against the Canadian dollar, oscillators on the daily chart remain in positive territory, indicating that further downside pressure may be limited in the near term.
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