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The USD/JPY pair remains at October levels, driven by a weakening U.S. dollar. The yen's strength is primarily due to hawkish expectations regarding the Bank of Japan's monetary policy, as the central bank is expected to continue raising interest rates. This has led to an increase in Japanese Government Bond (JGB) yields, which in turn is prompting capital flows toward the lower-yielding yen.
Uncertainty surrounding President Donald Trump's trade policies and their impact on the global economy is weighing on investor sentiment. This is reflected in the broad weakness in equity markets, further reinforcing the yen's status as a safe-haven asset. Meanwhile, the dollar remains at multi-month lows due to expectations that the Federal Reserve may implement multiple rate cuts this year, adding additional pressure on USD/JPY ahead of the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report.
From a technical standpoint, this week's break below the 148.70–148.65 support zone serves as a key bearish signal. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart is approaching oversold territory, necessitating caution. A short-term consolidation or minor rebound may be prudent before positioning for a continuation of the two-month downtrend in USD/JPY.
At the same time, the previously broken support at 148.65–148.70 may now act as a resistance zone, limiting any recovery attempts. Beyond this level, the 149.00 round number serves as another resistance level. A break above 149.00 could push USD/JPY toward the psychological level of 150.00, with a possible move toward the intermediate resistance at 150.60, before testing the 151.00 level—which remains capped by the monthly high near 151.30.
On the other hand, Thursday's multi-month low at 147.30 now acts as the first support level, followed by the 147.00 psychological mark. A continued selloff could lead to the next support zone around 146.40, before a potential drop toward the 146.00 round level. Further losses may expose the 145.60–145.50 level, before testing the psychological support at 145.00.
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