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Over the past two weeks, Bitcoin has plunged below the $91,000 level, which had served as a strong support level for over three months. Is there hope that this fall will be short-lived?
Bitcoin's downturn: market uncertainty deepens
Following Donald Trump's victory in the presidential race, the crypto market initially received support, fueled by statements from the returning president that his economic policy would prioritize cryptocurrencies as financial instruments.
However, this narrative quickly faded into the background, overshadowed by Trump's escalating trade wars with key economic partners—China, Canada, Mexico, and the EU. The resulting uncertainty about the future of the U.S. economy pressured the dollar, which, in theory, should have supported token prices. However, this did not happen. Instead, market confusion over the real direction of the US economy triggered instability across various sectors, including the crypto market.
Trump's Bitcoin reserve order: false hope?
Then, suddenly, Trump issued an executive order to create a strategic Bitcoin reserve for the US. Initially, this announcement sparked a wave of optimism. But once investors realized the complexities behind the plan, the crypto market resumed its downtrend.
Even though token prices have recently rebounded slightly, it remains unclear whether demand for these assets will recover in the near future.
Why did Bitcoin crash?
The key reason behind Bitcoin's collapse—as well as the downturn of other cryptocurrencies—was the realization that Trump's reserve order did not involve large-scale government purchases of Bitcoin.
Instead, the fund would be formed through the seizure of cryptocurrencies from criminal and civil cases, rather than direct acquisitions.
Many traders had expected a more aggressive government buyback program. When those expectations were not met, disappointment led to widespread Bitcoin and altcoin sell-offs.
Will crypto demand recover?
Despite these developments, hope still lingers in the market that conditions may soon improve, sparking renewed interest in tokens.
But will this actually happen?
Unlike fiat currencies, stocks, and other financial instruments backed by real economies, factories, commodities, and production capacity, tokens lack intrinsic value. Their price fluctuations depend purely on supply and demand dynamics, rather than economic fundamentals. For now, the market remains optimistic, but there is a real risk that this optimism could turn into disillusionment.
Trump's real priorities: strengthening the dollar, not crypto
It's important to remember that both President Trump and his allies represent the real sector of the US economy—industries that build houses, manufacture military equipment, extract oil, and refine it into petroleum products. For them, tokens hold little practical value. Yes, crypto assets may be used to shift part of the US national debt onto unbacked digital assets, encouraging investors to purchase it in tokenized form. However, Trump has repeatedly stated that he will defend the US dollar, ensuring its global dominance as the world's reserve currency. He has made it clear that he will not tolerate competition from the euro, the world's second-largest reserve currency. Given this stance, is it realistic to expect Trump to champion tokens that lack real value? Highly doubtful.
A shift toward real assets?
Reviving the US economy requires tangible assets—not virtual ones. For now, the market still believes in the potential of cryptocurrencies. However, if sentiment shifts and investors realize that this optimism is misplaced, token prices could plummet further, triggering a mass exodus into real assets such as stocks, bonds, and commodities. This could lead to a long-term, severe decline in token prices—potentially returning them to levels seen a decade ago.
Daily forecast for Bitcoin & Ethereum
Bitcoin is currently trading below the resistance level of $82,460. If Bitcoin fails to break above this level, demand could weaken further, leading to a decline toward $78,126.
Ethereum is currently trading above the support level of $2,043.70. If Ethereum falls below this threshold, further declines toward $1,751.65 could follow.
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