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The U.S. dollar index remained just below its lowest level since November, as confidence in the U.S. economy's continued outperformance waned. Treasury yields declined across maturities, as investors sought safe-haven fixed-income assets. Gold rose, whereas oil neared its lowest level since September, as weak economic data from China further darkened the outlook for global demand.
Trump's tariff policies, pressure on key trading partners, a higher unemployment rate, and federal job cuts have increased the likelihood of a slowdown in the world's largest economy after months of outperforming both China and Europe.
Bond traders are also signaling growing risks of an economic stagnation in the U.S., with increasing demand for short-term Treasuries leading to a sharp decline in 2-year yields since mid-February. Investors are now pricing in expectations that the Federal Reserve could resume rate cuts as early as May to prevent a worsening of economic conditions. However, no policy action is expected at the March FOMC meeting.
This marks a sharp reversal in the Treasury market, where the dominant narrative in recent years had been the surprising resilience of the U.S. economy, despite slower global growth.
Recently, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly stated that growing uncertainty among businesses could slow U.S. economic demand, though she does not yet see the need for a rate cut.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell also acknowledged an increase in economic uncertainty last Friday, though he still expects inflation to continue its path toward 2%. Powell suggested that tariff-induced price increases could be temporary rather than a structural issue.
U.S. job growth stabilized last month, with nonfarm payrolls increasing by 151,000 in February, following a downward revision of the previous month's data. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate rose to 4.1%, adding to concerns over the labor market's resilience.
Technical Outlook for S&P 500
The S&P 500 remains in a downtrend. Key resistance for buyers today is $5,715—a breakout above this level could extend the rally toward $5,740. A further target for bulls is $5,766, which would reinforce buyer control. However, if risk appetite declines further, buyers must step in around $5,692 to prevent further losses. A break below $5,692 could quickly push the index back to $5,670, potentially opening the door for a move toward $5,650.
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