12.03.202507:03 Forex Analysis & Reviews: What to Pay Attention to on March 12? A Breakdown of Fundamental Events for Beginners

Analysis of Macroeconomic Reports:

Very few macroeconomic events are scheduled for Wednesday. The only notable event is the U.S. inflation report, which currently holds little significance, much like other economic reports. The market continues to trade based on Donald Trump's decisions, largely ignoring everything else. Even if U.S. inflation rises significantly—which could suggest a more hawkish Federal Reserve stance in 2025—it is unlikely to strengthen the dollar much. The dollar might gain 50 to 60 pips but could easily lose those gains within hours due to another selloff.

Analysis of Fundamental Events:

Among Wednesday's fundamental events, speeches from European Central Bank officials Christine Lagarde, Philip Lane, and Joachim Nagel stand out. However, the market remains fixated on Trump's decisions and statements. The former president is actively working without pause. Just last Friday, he proposed that Canada renegotiate the 1908 border agreement while claiming that the U.S.-Japan trade deal primarily benefits Japan. On Tuesday, he announced a doubling of tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum imports. Today, tariffs on steel and imports from all countries are set to take effect. An announcement of tariffs against the European Union could come at any moment.

General Conclusions:

On this third trading day of the week, both currency pairs could fluctuate in any direction, as the market is currently driven by emotions and heavily influenced by Donald Trump. If the U.S. president announces additional sanctions or tariffs, the dollar may face further pressure. Conversely, if U.S. inflation slows down, it will provide another reason to sell off the dollar.

Key Rules for the Trading System:

1. Signal Strength: The shorter the time it takes for a signal to form (a rebound or breakout), the stronger the signal.
2. False Signals: If two or more trades near a level result in false signals, subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. Flat Markets: In flat conditions, pairs may generate many false signals or none at all. It's better to stop trading at the first signs of a flat market.
4. Trading Hours: Open trades between the start of the European session and the middle of the US session, then manually close all trades.
5. MACD Signals: On the hourly timeframe, trade MACD signals only during periods of good volatility and a clear trend confirmed by trendlines or trend channels.
6. Close Levels: If two levels are too close (5–20 pips apart), treat them as a support or resistance zone.
7. Stop Loss: Set a Stop Loss to breakeven after the price moves 15–20 pips in the desired direction.

Key Chart Elements:

Support and Resistance Levels: These are target levels for opening or closing positions and can also serve as points for placing Take Profit orders.

Red Lines: Channels or trendlines indicating the current trend and the preferred direction for trading.

MACD Indicator (14,22,3): A histogram and signal line used as a supplementary source of trading signals.

Important speeches and reports, which are consistently featured in the news calendar, can significantly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during their release, it is advisable to trade with caution or consider exiting the market to avoid potential sharp price reversals against the prior trend.

Beginners in the Forex market should understand that not every transaction will be profitable. Developing a clear trading strategy and practicing effective money management are crucial for achieving long-term success in trading.