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On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair on Tuesday rebounded from the 1.2865 level and rose above 1.2931. Today, consolidation below this level will favor some strengthening of the U.S. dollar towards 1.2865, while consolidation above 1.2931 would indicate a continuation of the upward movement toward the 127.2% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.3003.
The wave structure is absolutely clear. The last completed downward wave did not break the low of the previous wave, while the last upward wave broke the previous peak. Thus, at the moment, it can be considered that a bullish trend is still forming. The pound has been showing very strong growth, perhaps excessively so. The fundamental background is not strong enough for bulls to attack without pauses. However, most traders do not want to buy the dollar under any economic conditions, as Donald Trump introduces new tariffs almost daily, which harm U.S. economic growth and affect many global economies.
Tuesday's fundamental background was weak. The JOLTS report did not have much impact, and traders were reluctant to buy the dollar after a one-and-a-half-week decline. Trump's new tariff announcements triggered another bullish attack, which is no longer surprising. Today, the U.S. inflation report will be released, but it is uncertain whether it will have any significant impact on the market. Inflation remains an important indicator influencing FOMC monetary policy decisions, but the market is currently focused on Trump's policies, the looming U.S. recession, and the expectation of strong Fed easing in response to that recession. Regardless of the inflation data, it is unlikely to change the overall market sentiment. Thus, traders' attention will once again be on Donald Trump, and the dollar will need very strong reasons to start recovering.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair continues to rise and has consolidated above the 50.0% Fibonacci level at 1.2861, which suggests further movement toward the 38.2% retracement level at 1.2994. I do not expect a significant decline in the pound until the price breaks below the ascending channel. The CCI indicator has formed a bearish divergence, but it has had no visible impact on the bulls' position so far. A break below 1.2861 would allow for a potential decline in the pound toward the 61.8% Fibonacci level at 1.2728.
Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:
The sentiment among non-commercial traders became less bearish over the last reporting week. The number of long positions held by speculators increased by 7,777, while the number of short positions decreased by 6,334. Bears have lost their advantage in the market. The gap between long and short positions now stands at 82,000 vs. 63,000 in favor of bulls.
In my opinion, the pound still has downward potential, but recent events may force the market to shift direction in the long term. Over the past three months, the number of long positions has decreased from 98,000 to 81,000, while short positions have declined from 78,000 to 63,000. I believe that over time, professional traders may reduce their long positions or increase their short positions, as all possible bullish factors for the pound have already been priced in. However, a sharp shift in traders' sentiment toward the U.S. economy due to Donald Trump may prevent them from buying the dollar and selling the pound.
Economic Calendar for the U.S. and the U.K.:
On Wednesday, the economic calendar contains only one major release. The impact of the fundamental background on trader sentiment may be weak today.
GBP/USD Forecast and Trading Recommendations:
Selling the pair was possible following a rebound from 1.2931 on the hourly chart, targeting 1.2810. This target was reached.
Buying the pair was possible on a rebound from 1.2865, targeting 1.2994. These trades can remain open with a stop at breakeven.
Fibonacci retracement levels are constructed between 1.2809–1.2100 on the hourly chart and 1.2299–1.3432 on the 4-hour chart.
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