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The wave structure on the hourly chart has shifted. The last completed downward wave failed to break the previous low, while the latest upward wave barely surpassed the prior peak by just a few points. This indicates that the bullish trend remains intact. However, the current upward movement appears impulsive, driven mainly by concerns over a U.S. economic slowdown due to Trump's policies. This has been one of the primary reasons behind the recent collapse of the U.S. dollar.
Tuesday's fundamental backdrop was once again mixed. The ZEW economic sentiment indices for Germany and the Eurozone came in at 51.6 and 39.8, respectively, exceeding market expectations. However, U.S. housing starts, industrial production, and building permits data were also stronger than expected, preventing bulls from extending their gains. The euro failed to break above 1.0944 on three attempts, which, in my view, suggests it is time for a significant downward wave, as the euro has been rallying for too long. The 1.0944 level has acted as a firm resistance, and the latest bullish wave was notably weak.
Today, the Fed meeting will provide traders with substantial new monetary policy insights. I believe that the U.S. dollar may recover some ground today. This does not necessarily indicate the start of a bearish trend, but a significant downward wave is highly likely.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair continues to rise after breaking above the horizontal channel, confirming a bullish trend within an ascending channel. A rejection from the 61.8% Fibonacci level at 1.0818 suggests that the uptrend could extend towards the 76.4% retracement level at 1.0969. Meanwhile, bearish divergences are forming on both the CCI and RSI indicators, signaling an impending correction. A downward move is also likely on the hourly chart. If there are no surprises from the Fed this evening, I expect the dollar to strengthen towards 1.0818.
Over the past week, professional traders opened 3,424 long positions while closing 19,772 short positions, shifting the "Non-commercial" sentiment back to bullish—thanks to Donald Trump. The total number of long positions among speculators has now reached 188,000, while short positions have decreased to 175,000.
For twenty consecutive weeks, large investors had been reducing their euro holdings, but over the past five weeks, they have been unwinding short positions and increasing long exposure. The divergence in monetary policy between the ECB and the Fed continues to favor the U.S. dollar, but Trump's policies remain a more dominant factor, potentially leading to a dovish shift in Fed policy and even a recession in the U.S. economy.
March 19 features four key economic releases, with three being highly significant for the U.S. dollar. Market sentiment could experience major shifts in the evening session.
Sell positions can be considered if the pair rejects 1.0944 on the hourly chart, targeting 1.0857 and 1.0797.
Buy positions are also an option, but I remain skeptical about the strong, uninterrupted rally of the euro. I tend to be cautious when price moves in just one direction without significant pullbacks. New long entries are only advisable if the pair closes above 1.0944, with a target of 1.1057.
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