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Although the U.S. data showed a growth of 2.4% compared to the expected 2.3%, the dollar index fell by 0.28%. The pound surged by 78 pips, nearly reaching the 1.3001 target. The Marlin oscillator on the daily timeframe has returned to positive territory, possibly indicating that its previous drop into bearish territory on Wednesday was a false signal. It's now evident that the price is gathering momentum to break through 1.3001 and continue rising to the next resistance at 1.3101, the high from October 15, 2024.
Today's UK GDP and retail sales data are expected to be neutral or moderately weak. The consensus forecast for Q4 GDP is 0.1% (1.4% y/y, unchanged), and retail sales for February are projected to fall by 0.3% (0.5% y/y vs. 1.0% y/y in January). The trade balance for January may show a slight improvement from -£17.45 billion to -£16.80 billion. These figures may serve as a foundation for ongoing bullish consolidation.
On the H4 chart, the pound decisively broke through the signal level of 1.2944, briefly climbing above the Kijun line and nearly reaching the 1.3001 target. The price hovers near this level, and the Marlin oscillator moves sideways. Market participants are awaiting UK economic data.
The boundary of the alternative scenario lies much lower, at yesterday's low of 1.2867, near the target range of 1.2816/47. A downward move would only be deemed valid if the price falls below this range. Until then, any possible decline toward this support may be a false move.
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