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The U.S. stock index, the S&P 500, posted one of the largest single-day gains in its history yesterday. It fell just a few points short of the target level at 5516.00. There's also the subtle question of whether the April 2–3 gap has been fully closed. If the market senses something is incomplete, it may linger for another day or two within the gray rectangle marked on the daily chart. A critical resistance level is the MACD line around 5669.50. A breakout above it could resume the medium-term uptrend, potentially pushing the index to new all-time highs.
However, our main scenario anticipates a reversal, with the price pulling back to support at 4612.00—the July 2023 peak. The Marlin oscillator also turns down from the zero line, supporting this outlook. The reasoning is that among the 75 countries Trump announced tariff reductions for (down to the base 10%) yesterday, none are the U.S.'s primary trading partners.
On the 4-hour timeframe, the price remains above the MACD line, which allows for a more precise test of 5516.00, perhaps even overshooting it. However, a break below the MACD line and 5356.00 could open the way to 5274.00, and a close below that would confirm the reversal scenario.
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