22.04.202519:02 Forex Analysis & Reviews: XAU/USD. Analysis and Forecast

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After setting a new all-time high at $3500 under overbought conditions, gold prices are pulling back. Nevertheless, bullish sentiment remains strong due to persistent concerns over the potential economic fallout from President Donald Trump's tariff policies. Combined with ongoing geopolitical tensions, this continues to serve as a tailwind for the safe-haven asset.

Trump's accusations against Fed Chair Jerome Powell could undermine confidence in the Federal Reserve's independence, potentially accelerating the timeline for interest rate cuts. This adds further pressure on the U.S. dollar, making gold more attractive to investors.

Currently, according to CME Group's FedWatch Tool, traders are already pricing in three potential rate cuts by the Fed this year, with a 25-basis-point cut expected as early as June.

Geopolitical tensions are also impacting the market by introducing additional risks, which support demand for safe-haven assets like gold.

To identify better trading opportunities, attention should be paid to the upcoming release of the U.S. Richmond Manufacturing Index, along with speeches by key FOMC members, which may influence demand for the U.S. dollar. On Wednesday, market participants will also be watching the U.S. Manufacturing PMI data, which could have a significant impact on market sentiment and XAU/USD dynamics.

From a technical perspective, the RSI above 70 indicates potential overheating, suggesting bulls should be cautious when opening new long positions. A pullback or consolidation could provide bulls with a stronger foundation. Support in the $3425–$3430 range is critical ahead of the psychological level at $3400. A break below this round level could trigger technical selling, dragging prices down to $3357. Further support lies in the $3344–$3330 level, and a decisive break below it would open the door to deeper losses.

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