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On Tuesday, the GBP/USD pair corrected downward after another surge on Monday. No fundamental or macroeconomic reasons supported such movements on either Monday or Tuesday. There weren't even any notable announcements from Donald Trump. However, it's worth noting that the market doesn't need news to justify selling the dollar. The broader global context and the policies of the newly re-elected U.S. president are already reason enough for the continuous selling of the U.S. currency. As for the routine macroeconomic background, traders remain uninterested. Fundamental drivers and central bank monetary policy are also being disregarded. This time, the 1.3440 level kept the pair from further gains, but who would now bet on a strong dollar rebound?
On Tuesday, four sell signals were formed in the 5-minute timeframe, similar to those in the euro. The price bounced four times from the 1.3421–1.3440 area but never managed to reach the nearest target level at 1.3365. Thus, novice traders could have opened short positions throughout the day without incurring losses. Profit, however, was only possible with the manual closure of the trades.
On the hourly timeframe, GBP/USD could have already started a downward trend long ago, but the market continues to focus exclusively on Trump. As a result, the pound sterling continues to climb steadily. This means the pair's future movements depend solely on the U.S. president and his decisions and nothing else. Perhaps the market's attitude toward news will shift in the future — but for now, we see no sign of that happening.
On Wednesday, the GBP/USD pair may pull back, but if we see another inexplicable rally in the pound, it won't surprise. Trading remains strictly technical, based on key levels.
On the 5-minute timeframe, trading can currently be based on the following levels: 1.2848–1.2860, 1.2913, 1.2980–1.2993, 1.3043, 1.3102–1.3107, 1.3145–1.3167, 1.3203, 1.3289–1.3297, 1.3365, 1.3421–1.3440, 1.3488, 1.3537, 1.3580–1.3598. No significant events are scheduled in the UK for Wednesday. In the U.S., however, key GDP and ADP reports will be released. Still, it doesn't matter how significant these releases are, as the market is currently ignoring about 90% of the macroeconomic background. The U.S. economy will likely show signs of slowing in the first quarter, which could be another reason for selling the dollar.
Support and Resistance Levels: These are target levels for opening or closing positions and can also serve as points for placing Take Profit orders.
Red Lines: Channels or trendlines indicating the current trend and the preferred direction for trading.
MACD Indicator (14,22,3): A histogram and signal line used as a supplementary source of trading signals.
Important Events and Reports: Found in the economic calendar, these can heavily influence price movements. Exercise caution or exit the market during their release to avoid sharp reversals.
Forex trading beginners should remember that not every trade will be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing proper money management are essential for long-term trading success.
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