30.04.202513:31 Forex Analysis & Reviews: 100 Days of Trump's Presidency

While the dollar prepares for key economic data that could determine the Federal Reserve's next course of action, Donald Trump reflected on his first 100 days as President of the United States.

During his speech, Trump resumed his criticism of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, stating that interest rates should be lower. "Inflation has fallen, but interest rates haven't. Obviously, I have someone at the Fed who isn't doing a very good job," Trump said at a rally near Detroit, Michigan.

The President's condemnation came despite his earlier comments this month that he did not plan to fire the head of the central bank, even though he has continuously criticized the Fed's slow pace of interest rate cuts. Uncertainty surrounding Powell's fate has rattled the markets and deepened investors' concerns over Trump's tariff plans. "You shouldn't criticize the Fed," Trump said. "You should let it do its job — but I know a lot more about interest rates than he does."

Trump wrapped his criticism in a broader defense of his signature economic agenda, asserting that his sweeping tariff policy would inspire a wave of economic growth and bring manufacturers back to the U.S. Just hours before the rally, Trump signed directives rolling back some of his planned tariffs — including the removal of 25% duties on auto parts used in cars and trucks manufactured in the United States. The president called this move a "small flexibility" intended to give companies time to resume domestic production, while also issuing a stern warning to automakers still considering the import of components.

Polls show that voters are wary of Trump's economic agenda and are concerned that tariffs could trigger a recession and a spike in consumer prices. It is therefore not surprising that, according to recent data, U.S. consumer confidence in April fell to a five-year low.

Trump's approval rating has dropped to the lowest level in decades for a president at this milestone. These ratings have fallen amid concerns over his economic management and fears of a potential recession. Only 39% of respondents in an ABC News/Washington Post poll said they approve of Trump's performance as president, while a CNN poll showed a 41% approval rating.

Immigration remains an area of relative strength for the Republican president, who has intensified government efforts to curb border crossings and deport illegal immigrants from the U.S. Trump's second term has also been marked by a campaign to rapidly reshape the government.

Trump has also led a large-scale effort to overhaul Washington's foreign relations, renewing his first-term calls for European allies to increase NATO contributions, while demanding U.S. naval passage through the Panama Canal, discussing the potential acquisition of Greenland, and musing that Canada should become the 51st U.S. state.

As for the current technical picture of EUR/USD, buyers now need to focus on breaking above the 1.1380 level. Only then will it be possible to aim for a test of 1.1440. From there, a move toward 1.1490 becomes viable, although achieving this without support from major players will be quite challenging. The furthest target is 1.1530. In the event of a decline, I expect meaningful buying activity only around 1.1320. If no buyers appear there, it would be best to wait for a retest of the 1.1265 low or consider long positions from 1.1215.

As for the current technical picture of GBP/USD, pound buyers need to break through the nearest resistance at 1.3370. Only this would allow a move toward 1.3400, above which a breakout will be quite difficult. The furthest target is the 1.3440 area. In the event of a drop, bears will try to gain control at 1.3333. If successful, a break of that range will deal a serious blow to the bulls' positions and push GBP/USD toward the 1.3280 low, with the prospect of a move toward 1.3240.