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The turbulence of recent months, driven by Donald Trump's actions and the release of fresh U.S. economic data, has done little to help investors understand the true direction of asset prices. This uncertainty has only increased market volatility and heightened trader anxiety.
For example, last week's statement from China's Ministry of Economy that it is ready to enter into negotiations was interpreted by markets as a light at the end of the tunnel. This news supported the continued recovery of stock indices. Talks with other major trade partners—India, Japan, and others—only fueled the fire of growing optimism. Additional supportive news came from inflation data, which showed a continued trend of slowing inflation overall.
All these factors have heightened expectations that the Federal Reserve may cut the key interest rate from 4.50% to 4.25%, if not at the current May meeting, then potentially in June. The current consensus forecast suggests the Fed will likely leave the rate unchanged at the May meeting. Fed Chair Jerome Powell may again explain this decision by referencing the ongoing uncertainty around the economic and geopolitical impact of the U.S. president's policies. However, if Powell confirms a high likelihood of mutually beneficial trade agreements—particularly with China—and resilience in the labor market and continued inflation moderation, this could drive further demand for equities and push stock indices back toward recent highs.
What to Expect in Today's Markets
I believe that in the lead-up to the Fed's May meeting, investors will behave with extreme caution. There are two main reasons for this. The first is the presence of closed-door U.S.-China trade talks. Any semi-significant news—positive or negative—could trigger sharp market reactions. Second, the Fed's policy decision. An unexpected rate cut could occur if the central bank's members, led by the Chair, assess current economic conditions as favorable for such a move.
Considering this context, I anticipate market activity to stay quiet until the Fed's decision is announced.
The price of U.S. crude oil gapped lower after Saudi Arabia decided to increase oil production and exports to the global market. At the open, prices dropped by 4% before beginning a rebound, currently attempting to close the gap. Prices could likely reach the 57.80 level before reversing downward again. Given the prevailing negative sentiment, a continued decline seems more probable than a sustained rise. I consider it reasonable to sell crude oil on the rebound, around the 57.63 level, targeting a decline toward 54.00.
The pair is consolidating above the strong support level at 1.3255. The anticipated rate cut at the May 8 Bank of England meeting could increase pressure on the pound and lead the pair down to 1.3140. A potential level to enter short positions on the pair is 1.3247.
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