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The EUR/USD pair is struggling to establish a clear short-term direction, trading within a multi-day range as markets await decisive news from the upcoming FOMC meeting regarding the interest rate.
Solid U.S. employment data released on Friday, along with a better-than-expected ISM Services PMI, helped ease some concerns about a potential recession. This has supported the U.S. dollar and limited its recent decline.
Dollar strength in response to positive economic data may put pressure on the EUR/USD pair, as a stronger dollar makes the euro less attractive to investors.
However, the rapidly changing trade policy of U.S. President Donald Trump is introducing additional economic uncertainty. This could encourage investors to adopt a more cautious, defensive stance, thereby potentially capping further dollar gains.
From a technical perspective, last week's break below the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart—for the first time since early April—served as an important bearish signal, indicating a shift in market sentiment. Additionally, oscillators on the 4-hour chart have entered negative territory, confirming a bearish intraday bias, although they remain in bullish territory on the daily chart.
This underscores the need for stronger follow-through selling before committing to short positions. Currently, the 100-period SMA at 1.1375 on the 4-hour chart stands as the immediate resistance before the key round level at 1.1400. A sustained breakout above this level would allow EUR/USD to surpass the intermediate barrier at 1.1425 and aim for a return to the psychological 1.1500 mark. If bullish momentum continues, the pair could move toward the multi-year high at around 1.1575, last seen in April.
On the other hand, a drop below the round level of 1.1300 and the three-week low near 1.1265 would act as key support and a crucial pivot point. A break below this level would open the path for further downside toward the 1.1200 round level and potentially lower, targeting the 200-period SMA on the 4-hour chart.
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