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The wave pattern for GBP/USD has also transformed into a bullish, impulsive structure—"thanks" to Donald Trump. The wave picture closely resembles that of EUR/USD. Until February 28, we observed a convincing corrective structure that raised no concerns. However, the demand for the U.S. dollar then began to fall sharply, ultimately resulting in the formation of a five-wave bullish structure. Wave 2 took the form of a single-wave correction and is now complete. Therefore, a strong rally of the British pound within wave 3 should now be expected, which we have already seen playing out for three weeks.
Given the fact that news flow from the UK had no real impact on the pound's sharp rise, we can conclude that Donald Trump alone is driving currency trends. If—hypothetically—Trump's trade policy course were to change, it's likely the trend would reverse as well. In that case, to a bearish one. So over the coming months—or even years—it will be critical to closely monitor all actions from the White House.
The GBP/USD pair declined by 25 basis points by the start of the U.S. session on Wednesday, but such movements are barely worth noting. I'll skip the fact that the pound has been trading sideways for several weeks now. This indicates that the market is currently unprepared for either large-scale buying or selling. If it's unprepared, that means it's waiting for something. And in my view, it's not waiting for decisions from the Bank of England or the Federal Reserve.
The British pound continues to enjoy strength solely due to Donald Trump's policies. This can be said every day, because the situation hasn't changed from day to day. In recent weeks, we've seen that as long as Trump doesn't introduce (on a large and global scale) new tariffs, the currency market stays flat. This again proves the obvious fact: the market is entirely dependent on Trump's views. How long this will last, I can't say. But I believe that neither a Fed nor a BoE meeting can alter the market's overall sentiment toward trading.
I also do not believe in a quick resolution of the trade conflict between the U.S. and a whole list of countries. Even the government of Hungary—a small country—has stated that it may take up to six months to finalize a trade deal with the U.S. So what can be said about China or the European Union? The UK has only been superficially affected by Trump's anger. Some economists believe that Britain has strong political influence over Canada and several other Anglo-Saxon countries, so Trump is hesitant to damage relations with a friendly London. On the other hand, Canada was also a "friend" just three months ago—and Trump still didn't hesitate to damage trade ties with China and the EU, which are far more powerful economic zones than the UK.
The wave pattern for GBP/USD has transformed. We are now dealing with a bullish, impulsive trend segment. Unfortunately, under Donald Trump, markets could face many more shocks and reversals that defy wave patterns and any form of technical analysis. The formation of ascending wave 3 continues, with near-term targets at 1.3541 and 1.3714. Of course, it would be ideal to see a clear corrective wave 2 within wave 3—but the dollar doesn't seem to be in a position to grant that luxury.
On the higher wave scale, the structure has also turned bullish. We can now assume the start of a broader bullish trend segment. The nearest targets are 1.2782 and 1.2650.
My Core Analytical Principles:
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