08.05.202506:05 Forex Analysis & Reviews: What to Pay Attention to on May 8? A Breakdown of Fundamental Events for Beginners

Analysis of Macroeconomic Reports:

Very few macroeconomic events are scheduled for Thursday, and none are significant. Germany will release its industrial production report for March, and the U.S. will publish weekly jobless claims. These reports are considered secondary, even under normal circumstances, so we do not expect any market reaction. Both currency pairs remain in a flat trend, while the market waits for news from Trump, effectively ignoring 90% of macroeconomic and fundamental developments.

Analysis of Fundamental Events:

There is no point in discussing fundamental events other than Trump's trade war. Although the escalation of the conflict has been put on pause, a renewed decline in the dollar may occur if Trump resumes implementing or raising tariffs. Any escalation could lead to a further fall in the dollar, while any signs of de-escalation could strengthen it. The U.S. president has begun to soften his rhetoric toward China, but this is not yet a true de-escalation. As we know, no official negotiations with China are underway, so it's too early to talk about any trade deal. In fact, trade between the U.S. and China has already virtually halted.

Donald Trump understands that further tariff increases could damage the U.S. economy, so we are unlikely to see any new aggressive actions from him in the near term. The economic effects of his trade policy were already evident last Wednesday. Today, the results of the Bank of England meeting will be announced. The British central bank is expected to cut the key rate by 0.25%, but this decision has been known for several days. The pound would have already declined if the market had wanted to react to this factor.

General Conclusions:

Both currency pairs may move in either direction on this penultimate trading day of the week. The euro is still flat, and each bounce from the 1.1275–1.1292 zone may trigger a new upward wave. The British pound shows more upward bias but is also technically flat. The macroeconomic backdrop will not be relevant today. Only the Bank of England meeting may reflect on the charts of both pairs, but that event is unlikely enough to break the current range-bound trading.

Key Rules for the Trading System:

1. Signal Strength: The shorter the time it takes for a signal to form (a rebound or breakout), the stronger the signal.
2. False Signals: If two or more trades near a level result in false signals, subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. Flat Markets: In flat conditions, pairs may generate many false signals or none at all. It's better to stop trading at the first signs of a flat market.
4. Trading Hours: Open trades between the start of the European session and the middle of the US session, then manually close all trades.
5. MACD Signals: On the hourly timeframe, trade MACD signals only during periods of good volatility and a clear trend confirmed by trendlines or trend channels.
6. Close Levels: If two levels are too close (5–20 pips apart), treat them as a support or resistance zone.
7. Stop Loss: Set a Stop Loss to breakeven after the price moves 15–20 pips in the desired direction.

Key Chart Elements:

Support and Resistance Levels: These are target levels for opening or closing positions and can also serve as points for placing Take Profit orders.

Red Lines: Channels or trendlines indicating the current trend and the preferred direction for trading.

MACD Indicator (14,22,3): A histogram and signal line used as a supplementary source of trading signals.

Important speeches and reports, which are consistently featured in the news calendar, can significantly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during their release, it is advisable to trade with caution or consider exiting the market to avoid potential sharp price reversals against the prior trend.

Beginners in the Forex market should understand that not every transaction will be profitable. Developing a clear trading strategy and practicing effective money management are crucial for achieving long-term success in trading.