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The euro is trading around 1.1422, rebounding after finding strong support around the 1.1392 level—which also coincided with the lower band of the uptrend channel formed since June 24—but EUR/USD could face difficulties, as it has encountered strong resistance at the downtrend channel formed since early July.
If the euro breaks above 1.1425 in the coming hours and consolidates above this level, we could expect the uptrend to continue until it reaches the 6/8 Murray level, around 1.1474, and ultimately reach the 200 EMA, near the psychological threshold of 1.15.
The euro is showing signs of exhaustion in its upward momentum. Technically, below current price levels—around 1.1422—we could look for opportunities to sell the euro with targets at 1.14. Ultimately, if it breaks decisively below the uptrend channel, we will sell with targets at the 5/8 Murray level, around 1.1352.
The key pivot point for the coming hours is to check if the euro consolidates above 1.1422 to buy, or below this zone to sell. Technically, the outlook is bearish, so we could expect EUR/USD to slide to the June 24 level, around 1.1328.
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