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The Federal Reserve continues to remain silent this year. While the European Central Bank has already cut interest rates three times and the Bank of England twice, the FOMC is holding off on easing, fearing a resurgence in inflation. As I noted in previous analyses, the Fed has the legal ability to strictly adhere to its mandates without prioritizing economic growth. Indeed, the economy matters, but the current slowdown isn't the fault of the Fed nor any global crisis or economic catastrophe. As a result, Jerome Powell and his colleagues pay no attention to Donald Trump's criticism or market expectations for monetary easing.
One of the Fed's governors, Raphael Bostic, suggests that there may be just one rate cut before the end of the year. Bostic stated that the U.S. economy is not heading for a recession, but growth will slow. In 2025, GDP growth might be in the range of 0.5%–1%. He added that uncertainty and consumer apprehension about the future are prompting Americans to cut spending and save "for a rainy day." The new trade policies out of the White House force businesses to be highly cautious and delay key decisions, such as expanding operations or investing.
"At this time, I believe it is appropriate to reduce the rate once because, in my view, uncertainty in the U.S. economy is unlikely to resolve quickly," said Bostic.
Jerome Powell has previously reiterated similar reasoning for the Fed's reluctance to move forward with rate cuts.
What if the Fed weren't concerned about inflation and had already cut rates in 2025? Demand for the U.S. dollar would likely be even lower. The recent decline in the dollar occurred despite the ECB easing and the Fed maintaining its current stance. That is, at a time when diverging central bank policies should theoretically support the dollar, it continued to slide.
Based on my analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that the pair continues to form an upward wave structure. In the near term, the wave count will depend entirely on the position and actions of the U.S. president. This is important to keep in mind always.
Wave 3 of the current bullish segment has started, and its targets could stretch into the 1.25 area. Achieving those levels will depend solely on Trump's trade and economic policy. At this point, wave 2 within wave 3 may be complete. Therefore, I consider buy positions with targets above 1.1572, which aligns with the 423.6% Fibonacci extension. However, a full de-escalation of the trade war could reverse this bullish trend — even though there are currently no technical signs of such a reversal.
The wave structure of GBP/USD has changed. We are now dealing with a bullish impulse wave. Unfortunately, under Donald Trump's leadership, the markets may see a string of shocks and trend reversals against any wave or technical analysis.
Wave 3 is developing, with targets at 1.3541 and 1.3714. Therefore, I maintain a bullish outlook, as the market does not intend to reverse this trend.
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