20.05.202519:09 Forex Analysis & Reviews: AUD/NZD. Analysis and Forecast

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The AUD/NZD pair is declining, drawing seller interest following the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) decision to lower the official cash rate (OCR) by 25 basis points to 3.85%. Although this decision was expected, it led to a weakening of the Australian dollar, especially in light of the RBA's comments on the continued decline in inflation.

According to the RBA's accompanying statement, data from the March quarter confirmed that inflationary risks have diminished, and international developments could exert pressure on the economy. Forecasts indicate that overall inflation is expected to remain around the midpoint of the 2–3% target range throughout the forecast period, which leaves room for further rate cuts by the RBA—negatively impacting the Australian dollar.

Political turmoil in Australia has also added uncertainty and contributed to the Aussie's decline, which in turn weighs on the AUD/NZD pair. Recent price action has broken last week's range, pointing to a possible continuation of the downtrend and making the current situation more vulnerable to further depreciation of the Australian dollar. Traders should closely monitor developments and new data that may influence the pair's dynamics.

From a technical perspective, oscillators on the daily chart are mixed, so before opening new directional positions, it is advisable to wait for clear one-sided oscillator signals.

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