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The week demonstrated only one thing — the news flow surrounding Donald Trump and the trade war remains the dominant, if not the only, driving factor for the market. Of course, Trump doesn't threaten new tariffs every day, and trade negotiations don't stall daily. But when the news narrative shifts in that direction, the market is ready to continue selling the U.S. dollar. All other news has the effect of a holiday distraction. Sometimes, when the market gets bored or lacks news, it might react to a business activity index or industrial production report — but these events no longer influence the broader sentiment.
Therefore, there's no point in closely watching events unrelated to the trade war in the upcoming week. On Friday, Trump announced that talks with the European Union had failed and that starting June 1, tariffs on European goods would be raised to 50%. This topic will undoubtedly dominate in the new week. Trump will likely repeatedly clarify whether he plans to raise tariffs and whether the negotiations truly failed. Market sentiment will depend entirely on this narrative.
European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde is scheduled to speak in the Eurozone. Among other important events is Germany's May inflation report, which could support the ECB's current dovish approach, especially if inflation slows to 2%. It's also likely that we'll learn the following week that inflation in the EU has decelerated.
But as I've noted before, declining inflation and ECB rate cuts currently have little to no effect on the market. A dovish speech from Lagarde is also unlikely to have any noticeable impact. The ECB will most likely cut rates for the eighth time on June 5.
Based on my analysis of EUR/USD, the pair continues to develop a bullish wave structure. In the near term, the wave formation will depend entirely on the news background, especially Trump's decisions and U.S. foreign policy. And Trump, as we can see, is intent on continuing the fight. Wave 3 of the upward cycle has begun, with targets potentially extending toward the 1.25 area. Therefore, I continue to consider buying opportunities, with targets above 1.1572, corresponding to the 423.6% Fibonacci extension. It's important to keep in mind that a de-escalation of the trade war could reverse the uptrend, but at the moment, there are no signs of reversal or de-escalation.
The wave structure for GBP/USD has evolved. We are now dealing with a bullish impulse wave. Unfortunately, under Donald Trump, markets may still face many shocks and trend reversals that defy wave theory and technical analysis. However, everything is unfolding in line with the updated wave scenario. The pair is still developing wave 3 of the uptrend, with near-term targets at 1.3541 and 1.3714. Therefore, I continue to focus on long positions, as the market has no desire to reverse the trend again.
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