30.05.202517:37 Forex Analysis & Reviews: XAU/USD. Analysis and Forecast

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Gold is declining below the $3300 level today. U.S. PCE data met expectations. A shift in trade flows is helping the U.S. dollar regain positive momentum. This is also undermining demand for gold, although a combination of factors is holding traders back from opening aggressive bearish positions, thus limiting deeper losses.

The recent decision by the U.S. Federal Appellate Court to suspend a separate Trade Court ruling and reinstate tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump has added a layer of uncertainty to the markets, influencing investor sentiment. Additionally, ongoing geopolitical risks related to the prolonged conflict between Russia and Ukraine and tensions in the Middle East continue to support the precious metal.

Furthermore, expectations that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates further are limiting the dollar's strength, providing a tailwind for the XAU/USD pair. Thus, despite the current consolidation, gold remains in focus among traders who are awaiting further signals from macroeconomic data.

From a technical perspective, the overnight failure at the $3325 resistance and the subsequent drop below the key $3300 level favor the XAU/USD bears. Moreover, oscillators on the 4-hour chart have resumed a negative bias, supporting further intraday downside movement. Therefore, continued weakness toward the $3280 support, and further toward the next support at $3250, looks quite likely. A decisive break below the latter would pave the way for deeper losses, exposing the round $3200 level.

On the other hand, the $3325 retracement level stands as the immediate resistance before the $3350 supply zone. Sustained strength beyond this zone would negate the negative outlook and could trigger a short-covering rally, allowing the price to return to the $3400 psychological level. Momentum could extend even higher from there.

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