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The British pound is currently experiencing what is arguably one of its best periods in the last 15 years. Of course, during such a long period, there have been moments of ascent for the pound, but they were few and far between, making each one memorable. Today, the pound and the euro are rising not because the European Union or Britain can boast a strong economy, high growth rates, low unemployment, or strong appeal to international investors. They are rising because the dollar is falling. However, over these same 15 years, there have been numerous instances where the dollar appreciated, causing the euro and pound to fall — so it all balances out fairly.
As I've mentioned before, in the upcoming week, U.S. news will once again be in the spotlight. It should immediately be divided into two categories: trade war news and economic indicators. There will be plenty of both. As for the United Kingdom, we can expect the Services and Manufacturing PMI indexes for May but not much else. Therefore, the British news flow is unlikely to impact market sentiment significantly.
The current wave structure for the pound remains bullish, so any new dollar slump is welcome. And there could be several such slumps next week. Donald Trump has already announced tariff hikes on steel and aluminum. The Nonfarm Payrolls report is expected to show a decline compared to April. The next inflation report may show a sharp increase. These three factors will support buyers, but I believe the last two factors will only have a supplementary impact on the dollar.
The market will continue to focus primarily on trade war developments. If tariffs are increased again and there are still no visible trade agreements — which Trump keeps promising — it will be extremely difficult for the dollar to attract market participants. Corrective wave 2 is built. Corrective wave 2 within wave 3 is built. The path upward is open.
Based on the analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that the pair continues to build a bullish segment of the trend. In the near term, the wave structure will depend entirely on news flow related to Trump's decisions and U.S. foreign policy. Wave 3 of the bullish segment has begun, and its targets could extend up to the 1.25 area. Thus, I consider buying opportunities with targets above 1.1572, corresponding to 423.6% of the Fibonacci extension. It should be remembered that a de-escalation of the trade war could reverse the bullish trend, but for now, there are no signs of reversal or de-escalation.
The wave structure of GBP/USD has transformed. We are now dealing with a bullish impulse wave. Unfortunately, with Donald Trump in office, markets may experience many shocks and reversals that don't fit neatly into any wave pattern or technical analysis. However, the current working scenario and wave structure remain intact. Wave 3 of the bullish segment is ongoing, with immediate targets at 1.3541 and 1.3714. Therefore, I continue to consider buying, as the market shows no desire to reverse the trend at this point.
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