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On Monday, the EUR/USD pair consolidated above the 1.1374–1.1380 zone and rose to the 76.4% retracement level at 1.1454. A rebound from this level worked in favor of the US dollar and initiated a decline. Therefore, in the near future, a return of the euro to the support zone of 1.1374–1.1380 can be expected. Consolidation above 1.1454 will allow traders to expect further growth toward the next Fibonacci level at 1.1574.
The wave structure on the hourly chart has changed. The last completed upward wave broke through the previous high, and the last downward wave broke through the previous low. Now the new upward wave has once again broken the previous high. Thus, the trend remains bullish despite some signs of a reversal. The recent news about the potential increase in tariffs on steel and aluminum forced the bears to retreat again.
The information background on Monday was rather weak. Manufacturing PMI indices from Germany and the Eurozone had no significant impact on the pair's movement. The US dollar began to decline overnight as the market reacted to news about a possible tariff hike on steel and aluminum imports to the US. It also became known that Washington and Beijing are accusing each other of disrupting peace agreements. As a result, the trade war is taking on a new dimension at the beginning of the week, and traders continue to be cautious about buying the US dollar. Today, the Eurozone will release May inflation data, which may have an impact two days before the ECB meeting. If inflation unexpectedly rises (which cannot be ruled out due to Trump's tariffs against the EU), the ECB might reconsider and leave interest rates unchanged on Thursday. However, whether the ECB cuts rates or not, it currently has little significance for the euro.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair returned to the 100.0% retracement level at 1.1213 and rebounded from it. This rebound favors the euro and suggests a rise toward the 127.2% retracement level at 1.1495. A rebound from 1.1495 would support the US dollar and a slight decline, while a breakout above this level would increase the chances of further growth toward the 161.8% retracement level at 1.1851. No emerging divergences are observed on any indicator.
Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:
During the last reporting week, professional traders closed 1,716 Long positions and 6,737 Short positions. The "Non-commercial" group's sentiment remains bullish thanks to Donald Trump. The total number of Long positions held by speculators now stands at 204,000, while Short positions are at 124,000, and the gap is steadily widening (with rare exceptions). Thus, demand for the euro remains strong, and not for the dollar. The situation remains unchanged.
For seventeen consecutive weeks, large traders have been reducing Short positions and increasing Long ones. The divergence in the monetary policy approaches between the ECB and the Fed favors the US dollar, but Trump's policies are a more significant factor for traders as they may lead to a recession in the US economy and many long-term structural problems.
Economic Calendar for the US and Eurozone:
On June 3, the economic calendar contains two entries. The influence of the news background on market sentiment on Tuesday is expected to be weak since both reports currently have low significance for traders.
EUR/USD Forecast and Trading Recommendations:
Sales of the pair are possible today upon a rebound from the 1.1454 level with targets at 1.1374–1.1380 and 1.1320. Purchases were advised today on a rebound from any level on the hourly chart with a target of 1.1374–1.1380. This target was achieved. A close above the 1.1374–1.1380 zone allowed open purchases to be held with a target at 1.1454, which was also achieved. Today, purchases will be possible on a rebound from the 1.1374–1.1380 zone or a close above the 1.1454 level.
Fibonacci grids are built from 1.1574–1.1066 on the hourly chart and from 1.1214–1.0179 on the 4-hour chart.
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