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Yesterday's inflation data from the Eurozone slightly slowed the euro's growth amid a continued stock market rally (Dow Jones +0.51%). However, considering the market's growth amid several challenges—including China's ban on rare earth metal exports, difficulties in U.S. negotiations with both China and Europe, hints that Russian gas supplies to Europe via Ukraine might be restored, and impending global energy shortages due to AI development—along with a proposed bill in Congress to impose a 20% tax on foreign investor income, this market rally appears overly optimistic.
Specifically, Eurozone core CPI for May fell from 2.7% YoY to 2.3% YoY (forecast was 2.4% YoY), and overall CPI declined from 2.2% YoY to 1.9% YoY, against an aggressive forecast of 2.0% YoY.
Yet the euro remains optimistic — yesterday's decline didn't reach any indicator lines on the daily scale, and today started with a new round of growth. Also, the Marlin oscillator's signal line turned upward without reaching the border of the downward trend territory. Only if the price consolidates below the MACD line, under the 1.1343 mark, would a deeper correction (targeting 1.1066) become possible. However, the price needs to break above the immediate resistance at 1.1420 to resume growth. The targets remain the same: 1.1535 and 1.1692.
On the H4 chart, the price consolidated below the MACD line yesterday. However, this seems to have been a false breakout, as the Marlin oscillator is now turning upward from the zero line. We believe that consolidation above 1.1420 — unlike the situation on June 2–3 (gray rectangle) — will form a more sustainable structure for further growth.
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