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The wave situation clearly indicates that the "bullish" trend is intact. The last upward wave broke above the previous peak, and the last downward wave did not break below the previous low. It will be difficult for the bulls to count on further growth without new announcements from Donald Trump regarding increases or new import tariffs, but the U.S. president appears ready to continue raising tariffs and escalate the trade war with China to a new level. Thus, bulls have good reasons for new attacks this week.
On Wednesday, the U.K. Services PMI came in at 50.9 for May, exceeding traders' expectations of 50.2. That's one. The U.S. ADP employment report showed 37,000 new jobs compared to market expectations of 115,000. That's two. Moreover, the April ADP figure was revised down from 147,000 to 115,000. That's three. The U.S. ISM Services PMI fell to 49.9 against a forecast of 52.0. That's four. So traders had four reasons to sell the dollar again. In my opinion, the bulls could have mounted a much stronger offensive yesterday, considering the overall news background. Nevertheless, the bulls continue to attack steadily and are not in a rush. The bears have nothing to counter with; they have no desire to enter the market. Today there will be fewer economic reports, but that does not mean the bulls will take a break. The U.S. dollar still has little to rely on. The best it can hope for is to avoid another decline.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair consolidated above the 100.0% Fibonacci level at 1.3435 and then rebounded off it from above. Thus, the upward movement may continue toward the next retracement level at 127.2% — 1.3795. No emerging divergences are observed on any indicator today. The bullish trend raises no doubts for now, but a close below 1.3435 would open the way for a decline toward the 76.4% retracement level at 1.3118.
Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:
Trader sentiment in the "Non-commercial" category has become significantly more "bullish" over the last reporting week. The number of long positions held by speculators increased by 14,247, while short positions rose by only 2,861. The bears have long lost their advantage in the market. The gap between long and short positions now stands at 35,000 in favor of the bulls: 102,000 versus 67,000.
In my view, the pound still has prospects for a decline, but recent events are changing the market in the long term. Over the past three months, the number of long positions has grown from 65,000 to 102,000, while short positions have decreased from 76,000 to 67,000. Under Donald Trump, confidence in the dollar has weakened, and COT reports show that traders have little desire to buy the dollar. Thus, no matter what the overall news background looks like, the dollar continues to decline due to the events surrounding Trump.
News Calendar for the U.S. and the U.K.:
On Thursday, the economic calendar contains only one entry, which is of low significance. Thus, the impact of the news background on trader sentiment might be absent today.
GBP/USD Forecast and Trader Tips:
Trading signals should not be sought around the 1.3520 level today. It's better to use other levels on the hourly chart if the price reaches them.
Fibonacci grids are drawn from 1.3205–1.2695 on the hourly chart and from 1.3431–1.2104 on the 4-hour chart.
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