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Bitcoin has reached its recently favored level of $106,500 again, even though Friday's U.S. labor market data did not support this rise. Ethereum also strengthened over the weekend, but today's Asian session brought many surprises. A major sell-off across the market served as a wake-up call for traders hoping for another "to the moon" rally.
The data showed that the U.S. labor market remains in good shape, which allows the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates at current levels for longer — a negative for risk assets, including Bitcoin. The strength of the U.S. labor market effectively dashes investors' hopes for a near-term monetary policy easing. Moreover, strong employment figures give the Fed the confidence to fight inflation without fearing an economic slowdown. This exerts pressure on rate-sensitive assets. Bitcoin, like other cryptocurrencies, is traditionally considered a risk asset. In an environment of high interest rates and shrinking liquidity, the appeal of such assets diminishes as investors shift toward more conservative and profitable instruments. Thus, the current macroeconomic situation is unfavorable for Bitcoin's growth.
Nevertheless, Bitcoin's long-term prospects remain positive despite short-term fluctuations. Michael Saylor recently stated that, given the accelerating pace of BTC adoption, he has become even more optimistic about his $13 million Bitcoin forecast by 2040. Saylor's optimism is supported by several factors, including growing institutional investor interest, an increasing number of companies accepting Bitcoin as payment, and the ongoing development of the cryptocurrency infrastructure. Regulation of cryptocurrencies is also becoming clearer and more structured, helping to attract new market participants.
Regarding the intraday strategy for the cryptocurrency market, I will continue to act based on any significant pullbacks in Bitcoin and Ethereum, counting on continuing the bullish market in the medium term, which remains intact.
As for short-term trading, the strategy and conditions are described below.
Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy Bitcoin at the entry point around $105,700, targeting a rise to $106,500. Around $106,500, I will exit the long positions and immediately sell on the pullback. Before buying on a breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is below the current price and that the Awesome Oscillator is above zero.
Scenario #2: If the market does not react to Bitcoin's breakout, it can also be bought from the lower boundary of $105,200, targeting levels of $105,700 and $106,500.
Scenario #1: Today, I plan to sell Bitcoin at the entry point around $105,200, targeting a drop to $104,400. Around $104,400, I will exit short positions and immediately buy on the rebound. Before selling on a breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is above the current price and that the Awesome Oscillator is below zero.
Scenario #2: Bitcoin can also be sold from the upper boundary of $105,700 if there is no market reaction to its breakout, targeting $105,200 and $104,400.
Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy Ethereum at the entry point around $2494, targeting a rise to $2530. Around $2530, I will exit the long positions and immediately sell on the pullback. Before buying on a breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is below the current price and that the Awesome Oscillator is above zero.
Scenario #2: If the market does not react to Ethereum's breakout, it can also be bought from the lower boundary of $2476, targeting levels of $2494 and $2530.
Scenario #1: Today, I plan to sell Ethereum at the entry point of around $2476, targeting a drop to $2447. Around $2447, I will exit short positions and immediately buy on the rebound. Before selling on a breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is above the current price and that the Awesome Oscillator is below zero.
Scenario #2: If the market does not react to Ethereum's breakout, it can also be sold from the upper boundary of $2494, targeting levels $2476 and $2447.
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