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The wave structure on the 4-hour chart for EUR/USD has shifted into a bullish formation and continues to hold this shape. I believe there's little doubt that this transformation is entirely due to the new U.S. trade policy. Until February 28, when the U.S. dollar began to weaken significantly, the wave structure clearly indicated a downward trend segment, with corrective wave 2 under construction. However, Donald Trump's weekly tariff announcements changed everything. Demand for the U.S. dollar began to drop rapidly, and the entire trend segment that began on January 13 now appears as a bullish impulse.
At this stage, wave 2 of wave 3 appears to be complete. If that's true, quotes will likely continue rising over the coming weeks and months. However, the U.S. dollar will remain under pressure only if Donald Trump does not completely reverse his trade policy — something that seems highly unlikely. Currently, there are no strong reasons to expect significant dollar growth.
The EUR/USD rate increased by several dozen basis points. For most of the day, market participants remained inactive amid a lack of impactful news. Technically, there has been news this week, but it failed to capture the market's attention. The market is no longer the same as it was a few months ago — back then, any news about tariffs, threats of new duties, or even hints of trade tension easing could trigger strong market moves. Today, the market reacts only to official, verified, and specific announcements.
For example, today's claims by Donald Trump about "progress in talks with China" and a "signed agreement" were not seen as important. The market assessed the progress as zero, and the so-called "agreement" was simply a preliminary understanding on a few issues intended to ease the difficult U.S.–China trade relationship. It turns out that not only is China dependent on the U.S., but the U.S. also imports rare earth metals from China — materials it either doesn't have or has in very limited quantities. In this regard, Trump had to (and likely still will have to) compromise. In order to secure these rare earth metals, he appears ready to soften restrictions on technology exports to China and ease pressure on chip manufacturers. What else can the U.S. president do?
Still, the market is not satisfied with another "interim truce." A few weeks ago, China and the U.S. agreed to reduce tariffs by 115%, and back then, many spoke of de-escalation and peace. Then Trump resumed criticizing Beijing and renewed pressure in various forms.
Based on the analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that the pair continues to build a bullish trend segment. In the near term, the wave structure will depend entirely on the news background — especially decisions from Trump and U.S. foreign policy. Wave 3 of the bullish segment is still unfolding, with targets potentially reaching the 1.2500 level. Therefore, I favor buying positions with targets above the 1.1572 level, which corresponds to the 423.6% Fibonacci level and beyond. It should be noted that de-escalation of the trade war could reverse the upward trend — but currently, there are no signs of either a reversal or de-escalation.
On the larger wave scale, the wave structure has also transformed into a bullish one. A long-term upward sequence of waves is likely ahead — although the news flow from Donald Trump could turn everything upside down again.
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