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It has been less than two weeks since Donald Trump raised import tariffs on steel and aluminum for all countries except the UK. While negotiations with the UK were deemed successful, a formal agreement has not yet been signed due to unresolved issues. Currently, not a single trade deal—so actively promoted by Trump—has been finalized. It's also worth noting that roughly two months ago, Trump gave all trade partners a 90-day grace period with minimal tariffs to allow time for negotiations. As I've pointed out repeatedly, that grace period is ending, yet no deals have materialized. Moreover, there is no information about ongoing negotiations with any countries. This raises the question: was there ever any negotiation in the first place?
The U.S. president likely understands that time is running out, and soon, it won't be 74 countries looking foolish on the world stage—it will be him. Why? If none of those 74 countries manage to sign a deal with the U.S., a natural question arises: What kinds of demands is America making that no one is willing—or able—to meet? And more importantly, why does no one want to? In this scenario, Trump, who has been talking for months about securing "great deals," will look like a failed negotiator no one wants to engage with. Many countries might be open to talks, but "negotiation" and "accepting ultimatums" are two very different things.
That's why the American president announced plans to send "letters with unilateral tariff rates" to all trade partners. In other words, Trump is preparing to raise tariffs on all countries not in a hurry to offer trade terms that benefit America. He's planning to unilaterally decide the tariff rate each country will face. And all of this is happening amid mass protests across the U.S. against Trump's immigration policies. It seems that regular Americans may soon join the protests as Trump prepares to raise prices on goods from half the world.
Based on the current analysis, EUR/USD continues building an upward trend segment. In the near term, news will heavily influence wave structure, especially Trump's decisions and U.S. foreign policy. Wave 3 of the upward trend continues to unfold, with potential targets reaching the 1.2500 area. Therefore, I favor buying positions with targets above 1.1708 (127.2% Fibonacci level) and beyond. Keep in mind: any de-escalation in the trade war could reverse this uptrend—but for now, there are no signs of either a reversal or de-escalation.
The wave pattern for GBP/USD has transformed. We are now observing an upward impulsive trend. Unfortunately, with Donald Trump in office, markets may experience unpredictable shocks and trend reversals that defy technical analysis. Still, the working scenario remains valid. Wave 3 of the uptrend is unfolding, with a near-term target of 1.3708 (200.0% Fibonacci extension from presumed global wave 2). Therefore, I maintain a bullish outlook, as the market does not intend to reverse.
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