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The euro continues to show resilience in the face of geopolitical risks, but it is not doing so independently. It is supported by oil prices and technical consolidation in the stock market, echoing the same correlations seen back in 2003 during the onset of the U.S.–Iraq war.
This morning, the euro is consolidating above the 1.1535 level, signaling readiness for a surge toward 1.1692. However, the move could be even stronger—toward the price channel line near 1.1820—as the FOMC monetary policy decision is due tomorrow, and expectations point to a very dovish tone, especially given the visible yield curve inversion in U.S. government bonds.
The signal line of the Marlin oscillator is flat, mirroring price action and reflecting a wait-and-see sentiment ahead of the FOMC meeting.
A decline below the MACD line with an attempt to fall under the 1.1420 support level could trigger a deeper correction in the euro. For now, this is considered an alternative scenario.
The price remains above both linear and indicator supports on the four-hour chart. The Marlin oscillator has sufficiently cooled off, releasing prior tension, and now shows an intention to reverse upward from the boundary of the declining trend zone.
The key event will occur tomorrow evening, and under the main scenario, we expect the euro to continue its upward movement.
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