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On the final day before the Federal Reserve meeting, the euro could not withstand the broad market risk-off sentiment and dropped by 80 pips, halting at the MACD line on the daily chart. We anticipate dovish or even explicitly dovish signals from today's Fed release and Jerome Powell's remarks.
We do not even rule out a rate cut, despite the market pricing in a 97.9% chance of the rate being held unchanged. Still, we note that over the past week, the probability of a 25-basis-point cut has increased from 1.8% to 2.1%, and the yield curve divergence in government bonds has become more pronounced compared to a week ago. Moreover, the Middle East conflict could serve as a convenient reason for the Fed to lower rates "without regard for Trump" or currency speculators. If this happens, the dollar and the stock market may move in opposite directions — the dollar continues declining while the S&P 500 undergoes a downward correction.
On the H4 chart, the price has formed a flag — a classic trend continuation pattern. To confirm this signal, the pair must consolidate above the resistance level of 1.1535, which would also signify a breakout above the MACD line. Now, we just have to wait for the Fed's decision.
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