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The Bank of Japan has indicated a more careful stance on rolling back its ten-year monetary easing policy, attributing this to ongoing uncertainty regarding Japan's economic recovery. As a result, expectations for the timing of the next rate hike by the BoJ have been pushed back to around the first quarter of 2026. This development has led investors to reassess their forecasts for the Japanese yen, applying additional downward pressure on its value.
On the international stage, during the G7 summit, U.S. President Donald Trump and Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba failed to reach an agreement on tariffs. This has intensified concerns over the negative repercussions for the global economy—especially for Japanese exports. These events have further weakened the appeal of the yen.
Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar is attempting to hold its ground following strong gains in the previous session, as market participants await the Federal Reserve's decision and the release of the FOMC minutes.
Given the current uncertainty and muted expectations for near-term rate hikes, the dollar is not showing significant strengthening against the yen. Overall, the Japanese yen continues to struggle in attracting buyers, due to diminishing hopes for another BoJ rate hike in 2025 and lingering ambiguity surrounding the country's monetary policy direction.
Technical Outlook:
A breakout and daily close above the psychological level of 145.00 can be seen as a new bullish trigger for USD/JPY. Moreover, oscillators on the daily chart have just begun to gain upward momentum, suggesting that the path of least resistance for spot prices remains to the upside. Sustained buying beyond the monthly high near the 145.45 level would support a constructive forecast, potentially pushing the pair toward the round level of 146.00 and beyond.
On the other hand, a corrective pullback below the 145.00 level might attract buyers, with initial support likely found near 144.50. A firm break below this area could open the door for a deeper decline toward the 144.00. A convincing move below that level would expose the next key support near 143.50, ahead of the psychological level at 143.00 and lower.
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