20.06.202514:39 Forex Analysis & Reviews: AUD/JPY. Analysis and Forecast

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The AUD/JPY pair is regaining positive momentum after a modest pullback the previous day. However, spot prices remain confined within a multi-day range due to mixed fundamental signals, trading near the horizontal resistance zone of 94.35–94.40, having risen less than 0.10% on the day.

The Australian dollar is supported by a weaker US dollar and positive news from China — the People's Bank of China (PBOC) decided to keep loan prime rates (LPR) unchanged, which is boosting risk assets. Meanwhile, the Japanese yen remains relatively weak despite hawkish expectations regarding the Bank of Japan's monetary policy.

Data released earlier today indicated that Japan's annual national Consumer Price Index (CPI) in May remained well above the Bank of Japan's 2% target. This reinforces market expectations of a possible interest rate hike by the Japanese regulator in the near future.

In addition, ongoing uncertainty in global trade relations and heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to support the yen as a safe-haven asset. These factors contribute to yen strength and exert pressure on risk-sensitive currencies like the Australian dollar, particularly within the constrained price action of the AUD/JPY pair.

On the other hand, disappointing Australian employment data released on Thursday point to signs of weakening in the labor market, strengthening the case for a potential rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) in July. This news could reduce the attractiveness of the Australian dollar for traders, limiting its upside and capping further gains in AUD/JPY.

From a technical standpoint, oscillators on the daily chart remain firmly in positive territory, suggesting that the path of least resistance for the cross is upward. The pair finds support near the key level of 94.00, followed by additional support around 93.55. Resistance is currently located around the 94.50 zone, with the next key level at the psychological mark of 95.00.

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