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On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair on Friday consolidated below the support zone of 1.3425–1.3444, once again allowing for the expectation of a continued decline toward the support level of 1.3357–1.3373. A rebound from this zone or a close above 1.3425–1.3444 would favor the British currency and the resumption of growth toward the 127.2% Fibonacci level at 1.3527.
The wave structure indicates the end of the bullish trend. The last completed upward wave did not surpass the peak of the previous wave, while the last completed downward wave broke the previous low. Bulls are still unlikely to push for further gains without new negative news from U.S. President Trump, and thus have temporarily retreated. However, I believe this retreat will not last long.
On Friday, a very weak retail sales report was published in the UK. Sales volumes fell by 2.7% m/m in May, which was significantly below even the most pessimistic forecasts. However, this news did not lead to a drop in the pound, which indicates continued strength on the part of the bulls and a currently diminished importance of economic data. Earlier last week, meetings of both the Bank of England and the Federal Reserve took place, but they had little impact on traders' sentiment.
Over the weekend, it was reported that U.S. military forces carried out a missile strike on Iranian nuclear facilities, which could have caused turmoil in the markets on Monday night. As of now, the dollar has risen by just 35 pips, but trading activity may increase throughout the day.
Today, business activity indices will be released in both the UK and the U.S., and throughout the week, we may receive more headlines about reciprocal strikes between Iran, Israel, and the U.S. Such news will be significant for traders, as a conflict in the Middle East could have a serious impact on the global economy. Iranian authorities may soon block the Strait of Hormuz, and analysts are already forecasting that oil prices may rise to 120–130 dollars per barrel.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair has returned to the 100.0% Fibonacci level at 1.3435. The decline may continue toward the next corrective level at 76.4% – 1.3118, as bears have succeeded in consolidating below the ascending trend channel. The trend may now shift to bearish, but a strong fall in the pound remains uncertain. No developing divergences are observed on any indicator.
COT (Commitments of Traders) Report:
Trader sentiment in the "Non-commercial" category became significantly more bullish over the last reporting week. The number of long positions held by speculators increased by 7,404, while the number of short positions declined by 9,015. Bears have long lost their market advantage and have no real chance of success. The gap between long and short positions stands at 51,000 in favor of the bulls: 111,000 vs. 59,000.
In my view, the pound still faces downside risks, but recent developments have shifted long-term market sentiment. Over the last three months, the number of long positions has grown from 65,000 to 111,000, while short positions have fallen from 76,000 to 59,000. Under Donald Trump, confidence in the dollar has weakened, and the COT data indicates traders have little desire to buy the greenback. Thus, regardless of the overall news background, the dollar continues to fall amid developments related to Trump.
News Calendar for the UK and U.S.:
United Kingdom
United States
Monday's economic calendar includes several entries. The news background will continue to influence trader sentiment for the rest of the day.
GBP/USD Forecast and Trader Advice:
Sales were possible upon a rebound from the resistance zone of 1.3611–1.3620 with targets at 1.3527 and 1.3444. These targets have been reached. New sales may be considered if the pair closes below the 1.3425–1.3444 zone, with targets at 1.3367–1.3373 and 1.3328. I recommend considering purchases only after a close above the 1.3425–1.3444 zone with a target of 1.3527.
Fibonacci levels are drawn from 1.3446 to 1.3139 on the hourly chart and from 1.3431 to 1.2104 on the 4-hour chart.
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