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US stock indices closed higher yesterday. The S&P 500 rose by 0.94%, and the Nasdaq 100 also gained 0.94%. The industrial Dow Jones strengthened by 0.88%.
Oil prices fell while stock indices climbed after US President Donald Trump announced a ceasefire between Israel and Iran, sparking optimism for a long-term pause in the conflict.
Though not confirmed by official sources, the announcement instantly revived markets weary from lingering geopolitical tensions. Traders rushed to take profits from safe-haven assets and redirected capital into riskier instruments, hoping for a return to stability. Oil, as a barometer of geopolitical risk, dropped in response, reflecting eased concerns over supply disruptions from the Middle East. In contrast, indices climbed as investors interpreted the news as a signal of potential economic recovery and reduced inflationary pressure.
Brent crude fell by 5.6%, dropping below its June 12 level — the day before Israel began striking Iranian nuclear sites. S&P 500 futures rose by 1%. European stocks climbed 1.5%, while the Asian equity benchmark moved toward its highest point in over two months. The US dollar declined against a basket of currencies, and gold — a safe-haven asset — fell by 1.4%.
Trump's statement was soon followed by confirmation from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that his country had agreed to a ceasefire. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said in an earlier post that Iran would stop firing as long as Israel did the same.
These announcements came after a turbulent period in the financial markets, which had been shaken for nearly two weeks by fears of conflict escalation. Volatility was especially high in the oil market, where concerns about supply and transport pushed Brent crude close to $80 per barrel. By Tuesday, the benchmark had fallen below $69.
If the ceasefire holds — and there is no guarantee it will — the markets will certainly welcome it, as it will reduce uncertainty to some extent. The US dollar, which had been one of the main beneficiaries of the military conflict, is now under pressure. The shift toward risk assets reflects a strong desire among investors to draw a line under the Israel-Iran conflict and set aside any near-term concerns about Iran's potential path. The yield on benchmark 10-year Treasury bonds dropped by two basis points to 4.33%.
As early as tomorrow, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will likely have to explain why he and fellow policymakers seem determined to keep interest rates unchanged for now. Traders are expected to focus their attention on that event.
As for the technical picture of the S&P 500, the key task for buyers today will be to overcome the nearest resistance at 6,079. Doing so would support further growth and open the way toward the next level at 6,092. Equally important for the bulls will be to maintain control above 6,107, which would further strengthen the buyers' position. In case of a pullback due to weakening risk appetite, buyers must step in near the 6,069 mark. A break below that would quickly push the instrument back to 6,058 and open the road to 6,047.
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