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In the upcoming week, the euro is expected to maintain demand in the market. Currently, all events are aligning in its favor. I previously wrote that only the wave structure might offer support to the dollar, as it now resembles a completed five-wave structure. Consequently, we could expect the development of a corrective wave pattern. However, this is just a hypothesis, and the news background continues to exert sharp negative pressure on the dollar. Therefore, I am almost certain the market will find new reasons to sell the dollar. In that case, even the wave structure won't save it.
There will be plenty of reports, as usual. On Monday, Germany will release an important inflation report and a somewhat less significant retail sales report. In the evening, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde will give a speech. On Tuesday, the Eurozone inflation report will be released, followed by speeches from both Christine Lagarde and her deputy, Luis de Guindos. On Wednesday, Lagarde is scheduled to deliver another speech, as well as ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane. On Thursday, business activity indices in the services sectors of Germany and the Eurozone will be published. On Friday, Lagarde will speak once again.
As we can see, there will be six ECB-related speeches alone—and these are only the appearances of the top officials of the central bank. On the other hand, I do not expect any changes in the rhetoric of ECB policymakers. Lagarde made it clear two weeks ago that the monetary policy easing cycle is nearing its end, but if necessary, the central bank could still conduct one or two more rate cuts. This information doesn't make much of a difference for the euro. Whether the ECB cuts rates or not, demand for the EU currency continues to grow—but for entirely different reasons. Therefore, the European news flow is unlikely to impact current market sentiment significantly.
Based on the analysis of the EUR/USD pair, I conclude that it continues to form an upward trend segment. The wave structure remains entirely dependent on the news background, particularly related to Trump's decisions and U.S. foreign policy, and there are still no positive developments. The targets for wave 3 could extend up to the 1.2500 area. Therefore, I continue to consider buy positions with targets near 1.1875, which corresponds to the 161.8% Fibonacci extension. A de-escalation of the trade war could reverse the uptrend, but currently, there are no signs of a reversal or de-escalation.
The wave pattern for GBP/USD remains unchanged. We are dealing with an upward, impulsive segment of the trend. Under Trump, the markets may still face numerous shocks and reversals, which could significantly impact the wave structure; however, for now, the working scenario remains intact. Trump continues to take steps that undermine the demand for the dollar. The targets for the ascending wave 3 are now located around the 1.4017 level, which corresponds to the 261.8% Fibonacci extension from the presumed global wave 2. Therefore, I continue to consider buying positions, as the market shows no intention of reversing the trend.
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