04.07.202518:58 Forex Analysis & Reviews: USD/JPY: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders – July 4th (U.S. Session)

Trade Review and Recommendations for the Japanese Yen

The test of the 144.27 level occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved far below the zero mark, which limited the pair's downward potential. For this reason, I did not sell the dollar. A second test of 144.27 provided an entry point for implementing Buy Scenario #2, which resulted in only a 15-point increase in the pair.

Today is a public holiday in the U.S., so USD/JPY volatility is expected to remain relatively low. However, the possibility of unexpected price swings cannot be completely ruled out. Currency markets remain active, and even without significant news from the U.S., factors such as changes in investor sentiment regarding global economic growth, geopolitical risks, or sudden political statements from other countries may influence the yen's exchange rate. Traders choosing to stay in the market are advised to exercise caution and closely monitor news from Asia and Europe, which could act as catalysts for movement in the pair.

For intraday strategy, I will primarily focus on implementing Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1:I plan to buy USD/JPY today at the entry point around 144.52 (green line on the chart), aiming for a rise to 144.88 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 144.88, I intend to exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 30–35 point move downward from this level). A strong upward move in the pair is unlikely today.Important: Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just starting to rise.

Scenario #2:I also plan to buy USD/JPY if the price tests 144.21 twice in a row while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reversal upward. A rise to the opposite levels of 144.52 and 144.88 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1:I plan to sell USD/JPY today after the price breaks below 144.21 (red line on the chart), which may quickly push the pair lower. The main target for sellers will be 143.90, where I intend to exit short positions and immediately open buy trades in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 point rebound from this level). Selling pressure is unlikely to return strongly today.Important: Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just starting to decline.

Scenario #2:I also plan to sell USD/JPY if the price tests 144.52 twice in a row while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reversal downward. A drop toward the opposite levels of 144.21 and 143.90 can be expected.

Chart Legend:

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the instrument
• Thick green line – suggested Take Profit level or manual profit-taking level, as further growth above this point is unlikely
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the instrument
• Thick red line – suggested Take Profit level or manual profit-taking level, as further decline below this point is unlikely
• MACD Indicator – when entering the market, pay attention to overbought and oversold zones

Important:Beginner Forex traders should be very cautious when making decisions to enter the market. It is best to stay out of the market ahead of major fundamental reports to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you can quickly lose your entire deposit—especially if you don't apply proper money management and trade with large volumes.

And remember: to trade successfully, you need a clear trading plan like the one provided above. Spontaneous decisions based on current market sentiment are an inherently losing strategy for intraday traders.