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On Tuesday, the EUR/USD pair continued its downward movement and closed below the 100.0% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.1574. This suggests that the decline may continue on Wednesday, targeting the next Fibonacci level at 76.4% – 1.1454. A consolidation above the 1.1574 level would support the euro and a possible upward move toward 1.1645..
The wave structure on the hourly chart remains simple and clear. The last completed upward wave broke the peak of the previous one, and the most recent downward wave broke the previous low. Thus, the current trend can be considered bearish, although it has frequently shifted recently due to the news background. Donald Trump managed to sign several favorable deals, which could give the bears renewed strength in the near term. However, it is worth noting that most trade partners have yet to reach agreements with Washington.
On Tuesday, the news background was relatively weak, and the market was still reacting to Monday's events. The U.S. released the JOLTS report on job openings, which came in slightly weaker than expected. However, market reaction was minimal, if any. Currently, far more significant factors are influencing the market than the JOLTS report, and this week's news calendar features much more important events. Today, inflation data will be released in both the EU and the U.S., reflecting changes during the second quarter. The U.S. economy could show a 2.5% increase following a 0.5% contraction in Q1. Meanwhile, the European economy, under pressure from U.S. tariffs, may have ended Q2 with 0% growth. These two reports suggest that the euro may continue to decline today, but the actual data will be key.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair has turned in favor of the U.S. dollar and closed again below the 1.1680 level. Previously, the euro broke below the ascending trend channel. I am still cautious about concluding the start of a full-fledged bearish trend. Prices exited the channel not due to strong bearish momentum, but rather because of a prolonged correction. The EU–U.S. trade deal provided short-term support to the bears, but a sustained bearish news background is needed for a further decline toward the 127.2% Fibonacci level at 1.1495. A bounce from this level could trigger a short-term rebound in the pair.
Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:
During the latest reporting week, professional traders opened 6,284 long positions and 8,990 short positions. The sentiment among the "Non-commercial" group remains bullish, primarily due to Donald Trump's policies, and continues to strengthen over time. The total number of long positions held by speculators is now 248,000, compared to 122,000 short positions — a more than twofold gap. Also note the number of green cells in the table above, indicating strong position-building in the euro. In most cases, interest in the euro is growing, while interest in the dollar is declining.
For twenty-four consecutive weeks, large traders have been reducing short positions and increasing longs. Trump's policies remain the most influential factor for traders, as they could trigger a recession in the U.S. and cause other long-term structural issues. Despite several key trade agreements being signed, I see no change yet in the sentiment of major market participants.
Economic calendar for the U.S. and Eurozone:
July 30 includes six major economic events. The news background may have a strong impact on market sentiment throughout the day.
EUR/USD forecast and trader recommendations:
Short positions were possible upon consolidation below the 1.1712 level with a target of 1.1645. Eventually, the next target — 1.1574 — was also reached. New selling opportunities opened after the pair closed below 1.1574, targeting 1.1454. Buy positions may be considered today if the pair closes above 1.1574, with targets at 1.1645 and 1.1712.
Fibonacci retracement levels are drawn from 1.1574–1.1066 on the hourly chart and from 1.1214–1.0179 on the 4-hour chart.
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