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On Thursday, the GBP/USD pair drew market attention by partially reversing Wednesday's downward movement and hitting its lowest level since May 13. Currently, spot prices are trading just above the key psychological level of 1.3200. However, the prevailing fundamental backdrop calls for caution before taking positions based on expectations of a significant rebound.
The U.S. dollar has entered a phase of bullish consolidation after a sharp rally toward the psychological level of 100.00, with the dollar index marking a two-month high following Wednesday's FOMC meeting.
This consolidation has been a key factor in stopping the GBP/USD pair's decline. However, a meaningful weakening of the dollar seems unlikely given the Federal Reserve's continued hawkish stance. Moreover, Fed Chair Jerome Powell refrained from providing any clear signals about a potential rate cut at the September meeting during his post-meeting press conference.
Alongside strong U.S. macroeconomic data released on Wednesday, this should continue to support the dollar and limit any gains in GBP/USD. According to data from Automatic Data Processing (ADP), private sector employment in the U.S. increased by 104,000 in July, following a revised decline of 23,000 in the previous month. Additionally, the advanced estimate of U.S. GDP showed that the economy grew by 3.0% year-over-year in the second quarter, after a 0.5% contraction in Q1.
An additional factor capping dollar strength is the ongoing uncertainty around a possible extension of the U.S.–China trade truce. At the same time, the British pound may struggle to attract buyers due to growing expectations that the Bank of England will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its upcoming meeting scheduled for August 7. This continues to weigh on GBP/USD, warranting caution when forming positions or initiating new long trades.
From a technical perspective, the recent break below the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) was previously seen as a key bearish signal. Oscillators on the daily chart remain in negative territory, although the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is approaching oversold levels, confirming the potential for a correction.
Today, traders should focus on the release of key economic data during the North American session for better trading opportunities. While both fundamental and technical factors currently suggest that the path of least resistance for GBP/USD remains to the downside, a near-term correction is also possible.
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