05.08.202513:16 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Level and Target Adjustments for the U.S. Session – August 5th

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Today, the British pound was traded using the Mean Reversion strategy, while the Japanese yen could be traded using a Momentum approach.

The Eurozone Services PMI for July was revised downward, which put pressure on the euro in the first half of the day. The final index reading published by S&P Global came in at 51.0, below the preliminary estimate. This indicates a slowdown in growth in the services sector, which is a key driver of the euro area economy. While the index remains above the 50-point threshold that separates expansion from contraction, the downgrade reinforces concerns about the region's economic outlook.

Today, the U.S. ISM Services PMI, Composite PMI, and Trade Balance data are due. Strong figures could help ease concerns about a potential economic slowdown. The ISM Services PMI is a key indicator of the health of the U.S. economy. If the figure exceeds expectations, it will signal continued growth in the services sector, which is a positive development. The Composite PMI, which combines data from both manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors, will offer a broader picture of economic activity. A positive trend would confirm the economy's resilience. The trade balance also plays a significant role: a narrowing deficit or a shift to a surplus would indicate rising exports and, in turn, domestic production growth.

If the data is strong, I will rely on Momentum strategy setups. If the market shows little reaction, I will continue using the Mean Reversion strategy.

Momentum Strategy (Breakout) for the Second Half of the Day:

EUR/USD

Buy on a breakout above 1.1557 - target area: 1.1600 and 1.1630
Sell on a breakout below 1.1525 - target area: 1.1480 and 1.1460

GBP/USD

Buy on a breakout above 1.3305 - target area: 1.3342 and 1.3383
Sell on a breakout below 1.3255 - target area: 1.3217 and 1.3179

USD/JPY

Buy on a breakout above 147.85 - target area: 148.25 and 148.50
Sell on a breakout below 147.55 - target area: 147.35 and 146.89

Mean Reversion Strategy (Pullback) for the Second Half of the Day:

EUR/USD

Look for sell opportunities after a failed breakout above 1.1555, followed by a return below the level
Look for buy opportunities after a failed breakout below 1.1525, followed by a return above the level

GBP/USD

Look for sell opportunities after a failed breakout above 1.3300, followed by a return below the level
Look for buy opportunities after a failed breakout below 1.3260, followed by a return above the level

AUD/USD

Look for sell opportunities after a failed breakout above 0.6476, followed by a return below the level
Look for buy opportunities after a failed breakout below 0.6447, followed by a return above the level

USD/CAD

Look for sell opportunities after a failed breakout above 1.3822, followed by a return below the level
Look for buy opportunities after a failed breakout below 1.3785 followed by a return to this level.

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