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On Tuesday, the EUR/USD pair continued to trade sideways, mostly above the 100.0% Fibonacci level at 1.1558. This means that the upward movement may still continue toward the 1.1612 and 1.1645 levels. A consolidation below 1.1558 could be seen as an attempt by the bears to initiate a move toward the 127.2% Fibonacci level at 1.1495, but a similar attempt failed yesterday.
The wave situation on the hourly chart remains simple and clear. The most recent completed upward wave broke through the peak of the previous one, while the last downward wave broke below the previous low. Thus, the trend can currently be considered bearish, although it has been changing frequently due to the news background. Donald Trump managed to sign several favorable deals, which strengthened the bears' position, along with Jerome Powell's comments after the recent Fed meeting. However, recent labor market data and the shifting outlook for Fed monetary policy now support the bulls.
On Tuesday, the news background was fairly limited. Late in the U.S. session, the ISM Services PMI was released, a key economic indicator. Traders expected a rise from 50.8 to 51.5, but instead, the index fell to 50.1. As a result, the bears' newly formed offensive failed. In my view, the bears will face difficulties in the near term. The dollar had a favorable stretch in recent weeks when the news flow was largely in its favor. But that changed last Friday, and this week negative news from the U.S. continues, albeit in small volumes. Market activity remains low due to the limited news flow and events. However, this calm is likely temporary.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair reversed in favor of the euro and consolidated above the 127.2% corrective level at 1.1495 after two bullish divergences emerged. This suggests that the upward movement may continue toward the 1.1680 level. Traders should not be concerned about the pair closing below the ascending trend channel, as this does not guarantee the formation of a sustained bearish trend. The most recent news background instead points to renewed weakness in the U.S. dollar.
Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:
During the latest reporting week, professional traders opened 461 long positions and 2,617 short positions. The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" group remains bullish thanks to Donald Trump and is strengthening over time. The total number of long positions held by speculators now stands at 248,000, while short positions number 125,000 — a more than twofold gap. Also, note the number of green cells in the table above, which indicate significant accumulation of euro positions. In most cases, interest in the euro is rising, which implies declining interest in the dollar.
For 25 consecutive weeks, large players have been reducing short positions and increasing long positions. Donald Trump's policies remain a key factor for traders, as they could trigger a host of long-term structural problems for the U.S. economy. Despite the signing of several major trade agreements, some key economic indicators continue to show weakness.
News Calendar for the U.S. and the EU:
EU – Retail Sales Volume Change (09:00 UTC)
The economic calendar for August 6 includes only one entry, which is unlikely to be considered important. As a result, the impact of the news background on market sentiment throughout Wednesday will be extremely limited.
EUR/USD Forecast and Trading Recommendations:
Selling the pair is possible today if it consolidates below 1.1558, with targets at 1.1495 and 1.1416. Long positions may be held with targets at 1.1612 and 1.1645 as long as the price does not close below 1.1558.
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