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It's fair to say that there will be more upcoming news out of the U.S. than from the eurozone and the UK combined — even without looking at the events calendar. Donald Trump continues to shape the world in his own way, so the main news should again be expected from the White House. I cannot say that economic news will not matter for market participants, but political and geopolitical developments will carry far more weight.
It is worth noting that as soon as next week, a historic meeting between Trump and Vladimir Putin could take place in Alaska, where the Ukraine–Russia conflict will be discussed. Ukraine and Russia have not been this close to peace talks in the past three and a half years. The battlefield situation, while not entirely deadlocked, is close to it. Russia has the advantage, but its current pace of advance implies decades more of military action. Ukraine, though losing ground and its economy more slowly, continues to do so nonetheless. Therefore, now is a good time to work toward a peace agreement.
However, Kyiv and Moscow remain far apart in their demands. It will be up to Trump to reconcile the "fighters." I do not doubt that the focus will be on politics, not the economy.
Still, economic events should not be overlooked. On Tuesday, the U.S. will release its inflation report. According to market expectations, the consumer price index will rise to 3%, though I wouldn't be surprised if the acceleration is more significant. Given the poor labor market data over the past three months, bad news on inflation is also possible. In any case, the inflation report will create a new "headache" for the Federal Reserve. Fed policymakers are likely already taking painkillers, as it is nearly impossible to determine what to do with monetary policy. The labor market is "cooling," which calls for a rate cut. Inflation is rising, which means rates should not be cut. On top of that, Trump is demanding an immediate 300-basis-point cut and has already begun influencing not only Powell but other FOMC members as well. Next week certainly won't be boring.
Based on the EUR/USD analysis, I conclude that the instrument continues building an upward section of the trend. The wave count still entirely depends on the news backdrop related to Trump's decisions and U.S. foreign policy. The targets for this trend section may extend up to the 1.25 area. Therefore, I continue to consider buying with targets around 1.1875, which corresponds to 161.8% Fibonacci, and higher. I assume that the construction of wave 4 has been completed. Accordingly, now is a good time to buy.
The wave pattern for GBP/USD remains unchanged. We are dealing with an upward, impulsive section of the trend. Under Donald Trump, markets may still face numerous shocks and reversals that could significantly affect the wave structure, but for now, the working scenario remains intact. The targets for the upward section are now located near 1.4017. At present, I assume that the construction of the downward wave 4 has been completed. Therefore, I expect the upward wave set to continue and consider buying with a target of 1.4017.
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