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The wave pattern for GBP/USD continues to indicate the formation of an upward impulsive wave structure. The wave picture is almost identical to that of EUR/USD, as the only "driving factor" remains the US dollar. Demand for the dollar is declining across the market in the medium term, so many instruments show nearly identical dynamics. At present, wave 4 is assumed to be complete. If this is the case, the instrument's growth will continue within impulsive wave 5. Wave 4 could take a five-wave form, but this is not the most probable scenario.
It is worth remembering that, at the moment, much of the currency market depends on Donald Trump's policies, not only on trade. From time to time, positive news comes from the United States, but the market remains focused on ongoing uncertainty in the economy, contradictory decisions and statements from Trump, and the White House's hostile and protectionist foreign stance. Global tensions are increasing and, as mentioned, the US dollar remains the central figure in these developments, which is why it bears most of the market's pressure.
The GBP/USD pair fell by several dozen basis points on Monday. This immediately raises the question—why? There may be several answers. First, the market may be trying to mislead traders by showing a false direction at the start of the week. Second, a corrective wave may be needed as part of the future wave 1 within 5. Third, there may have been news developments that we are not yet aware of.
The news background this week could be highly varied. Many market participants are focused on US inflation data and negotiations between Ukraine and Russia. However, this week Donald Trump may also introduce new tariffs against a range of countries. Talks between Moscow and Kyiv—expected by many to bring an end to the war—may end the same way as previous rounds. Trump and his vice president, J.D. Vance, have spoken of new tariffs on China, which, like India, does not wish to stop purchasing Russian energy resources.
It should be noted that in October the Nobel Prize laureate will be announced, an award Trump is eager to receive for his peacekeeping missions. This is why he seeks to end the war between Ukraine and Russia as quickly as possible. However, it should be remembered that Ukraine may have to accept the terms presented to it. Kyiv is heavily dependent on European and US funding. If support from Europe and the United States stops, the war could end very quickly and not in the way the Ukrainian authorities want.
Russia, however, is unlikely to be dependent on Washington's opinion. Therefore, if it is not satisfied with the proposed agreement, no truce may be reached. In that case, it will not matter how many more tariffs Trump imposes on Russia's trading partners. Trump seems unable to understand that threats can only be effective against countries that are significantly weaker and unable to respond.
The wave pattern for GBP/USD remains unchanged. We are dealing with an upward impulsive section of the trend. Under Donald Trump, markets may face numerous shocks and reversals that could have a serious impact on the wave picture, but for now the working scenario remains intact. The targets for the upward section of the trend are now near 1.4017. At this stage, I assume that the formation of the downward wave 4 is complete. Therefore, I expect the upward wave sequence to continue and view buying with a target of 1.4017 as the preferred option.
Key principles of my analysis:
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