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The White House administration is preparing to introduce new tariffs on imports from China. Discussions on this matter are currently underway, as the "China" issue is more complex than the "India" one. This time, the US has grievances against China over the end of the military conflict in Ukraine, which Donald Trump is actively advocating for. We will not discuss the reasons for Trump's personal interest in ending the war in Ukraine. Instead, we will focus on the measures the US president might take to end this war and their potential effectiveness.
The first country to be penalized for not wanting to contribute to ending the war was India. Trump concluded that since India buys oil, gas, and weapons from Russia, it is financing the war. In my view, this conclusion could be drawn about almost any country, as Russia is rich in natural resources and sells them to many states. This essentially means that half the world is "sponsoring" the war against Ukraine.
For Trump, however, this is not a drawback — it is a huge advantage. The logic is simple: if you do not want the war to end, you pay tariffs. If you want the war to end and avoid tariffs, then purchase energy resources somewhere else — for example, from the US, which is always "ready to lend a helping hand to all in need." Once again, Trump is trying to kill two birds with one stone: he simultaneously demonstrates to the world his peacekeeping ambitions while filling the US budget. If tariffs are introduced without a reason, they draw criticism from many. However, Trump imposes tariffs "not for personal gain, but for the sake of world peace."
Now let's return to China, which could be hit with tariffs for the second time. China also buys energy resources from Russia, so Trump may raise tariffs on Beijing. The decision has not yet been made, and there is hope that a new escalation of the trade conflict will not occur. On August 15, a meeting between the leaders of the US and Russia is scheduled, during which the Ukrainian crisis will be discussed. If the talks are successful, the conflict will move into a de-escalation phase. In that case, tariffs against China will not be needed — at least for now. However, if the talks fail, Trump will have a new reason for an "absolutely legitimate" budget boost.
It is also worth noting that through tariffs against India and China, Trump aims to put pressure on Russia, expecting that New Delhi and Beijing will stop purchasing from Russia. In practice, however, neither India nor China will give up Russian oil, so the entire story again looks more like a pretext for imposing tariffs.
Based on the EUR/USD analysis, I conclude that the instrument continues to build a bullish section of the trend. The wave structure still entirely depends on the news background related to Trump's decisions and US foreign policy. The targets for this trend section could extend up to the 1.25 area. Therefore, I continue to consider buying with targets near 1.1875, which corresponds to 161.8% Fibonacci, and above. I assume that wave 4 construction is complete. Accordingly, now is a good time for buying.
The GBP/USD wave pattern remains unchanged. We are dealing with a bullish, impulsive section of the trend. Under Trump, the markets may face numerous shocks and reversals that could significantly affect the wave pattern, but for now, the working scenario remains intact. The targets for the bullish section of the trend are now located near 1.4017. At present, I assume that the downward wave 4 construction is complete. Therefore, I expect the upward wave sequence to continue and consider buying with a target of 1.4017.
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