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On Wednesday, markets continued to price in expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut at the September meeting, pushing the tariff theme—initiated earlier this spring by the U.S. president—slightly into the background.
Riding the wave of euphoria linked to a possible Fed rate cut, the U.S. stock market continued its upward trend. It appears investors are convinced that rates will indeed be lowered. This is confirmed by the continued rise in federal funds rate futures, which this morning show a 95.8% probability compared with 94.2% yesterday.
Even the views of two voting Fed members—Chicago Fed President A. Goolsbee and Atlanta Fed President R. Bostic—expressing doubts about the need for a September rate cut, mainly because of the tariff issue- have failed to sway market sentiment. Goolsbee believes the U.S. economy could face a stagflationary shock if inflation continues to rise while the labor market weakens. He also justified his skepticism by pointing to July's increase in core inflation, even though the overall annual figure remained unchanged.
I believe the market's confidence in a Fed rate cut stems not only from the stabilization of overall inflation but also from Donald Trump's persistence on this matter. I would like to remind you that the president is actively pushing for the replacement of Fed Chair Jerome Powell with a more compliant candidate precisely to begin lowering interest rates and stimulate domestic production.
Given Trump's stance and the general sentiment among investors, I believe the U.S. stock market has potential for continued growth, and any statistical data supporting this outlook will only push it higher.
For example, today, the focus will be on the release of producer inflation data, which, according to the consensus forecast, should rise year-over-year from 2.3% to 2.5%, and month-over-month from zero in June to 0.2% in July. As usual, weekly initial jobless claims data will also be in the spotlight, with expectations of a slight decline to 225,000 from 226,000 the previous week.
How might markets react to this data?
Any decline in jobless claims supports demand for risk assets, particularly equities. An increase in the Producer Price Index (PPI) is unlikely to have a major impact on market sentiment. As I have repeatedly noted, the structure of the U.S. economy gives more weight to consumer inflation, or the Consumer Price Index (CPI), than to its producer component when it comes to Fed policy and interest rate prospects.
And to finish the day, speeches are expected from Trump and Richmond Fed President T. Barkin. Their views on inflation prospects, tariffs, and external influences on the U.S. economy could have a short-term impact on asset prices.
Assessing the market picture, I view it as moderately positive.
The CFD on the S&P 500 futures has set a new local high on the back of persistent expectations of a Fed rate cut in September. Given this, a renewed rise to 6,486.20 can be expected after a slight corrective decline to 6,441.25. A potential buying level is 6,445.01.
The CFD on the NASDAQ 100 futures has also set a new local high amid expectations of a Fed rate cut in September. Given this, a renewed rise to 24,000.00 can be expected after a possible slight corrective decline to 23,717.70. A potential buying level is 23,741.90.
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